GenDigital

Top Summer Movie Releases

As part of our April Immersion, we once again conducted our annual Summer Movie Preview with a thousand members of our teen and college panel who are regular movie theater visitors, that is they attend at least one movie per month on average. In the past, the Summer Movie Preview has been a solid indicator of planned attendance and for the most part over the past three waves, it's been spot on for the top 5.

For the '09 wave, panelists viewed trailers and read plot summaries/synopses for 41 releases (May-August). After viewing each trailer and reading the related summary, the panelist rated their planned attendance based on a 1 to 10 scale. Overall, we're seeing historically high levels of planned attendance so there is a good chance that even some of the films outside the top 15 can still pull in $75 to $100 million this summer just from teens and college students alone. Here's a quick look at the top performers in terms of planned attendance.

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

2. Bruno

3. The Hangover

4. Land of the Lost

5. Funny People

6. G.I. Joe

7. Angels & Demons

8. Star Trek

9. Harry Potter

10. Terminator Salvation/I Love You Beth Cooper (tie)

A Subdued Mother's Day

Mother's Day is just a few short days away and our leading indicators, based on our April '09 immersion, suggest that Mom's around the country will be receiving a lot more hugs and kisses than big presents from their teen and college aged children. That said, the majority of teens and college students who took part in the monthly immersion still plan on purchasing (or have already purchased) a gift for Mom, the amount being earmarked (or already spent) is down sharply compared to a year ago.

Here's a quick look:

- Plan to purchase a gift for Mom: 71%, down from 86% last year

- Plan to spend $50 or less: 85%, up from 63%

- Plan to more than $50: 15%, down from 37%

- Top gift choices: flowers, beauty products, books, salon/spa gift cards, clothing and accessories, DVDs

Q1 Video Game Round Up

For the most part it looks like the video game category seems to be holding up relatively well despite the marked decline we've seen in teen and college student discretionary spending. Among the 84% of the teens and college students who own at least one video game system, nearly a third, some 32% purchased at least one video game title during the first quarter of 2009 with an average purchase price of $47.

The most commonly purchased titles continue to skew rather heavily towards the Wii console system as well as the Xbox 360. The PS3 seems to be picking up the scraps of what's left, but clearly they're not performing nearly as well. In our minds, the bigger story playing out is the sizable increase in online video game play via subscription services with Xbox Live leading the way. The percentage of teens and college students who subscribed to an online video game service increased to 14% during the first quarter compared to slightly less than 6% on a year over year basis. On title by title basis, the top ten new games purchased during the first quarter included:

1. Madden NFL 09

2. Resident Evil 5

3. Wii Fit

4. Call of Duty: World at War

5. Mario Kart

6. Halo Wars

7. Rock Band 2

8. MLB 09 The Show

9. My Fitness Coach

10. Halo 3

 
In terms of visibility for the rest of year, teen and college student video game system owners plan to purchase an average of 1.7 game titles over the next six months, compared to 2.2 titles last year. 

Sneak Peek At Latest Teen Retail Trends

Suffice to say the latest teen retail results are really a mixed bag, and in most cases, those bags are a lot lighter than last year. From what we've seen so far in the latest wave of Youth Trends Teen Lifestyle, there is a bold line being drawn from what is realistic and what is aspirational.

At first glance though, it's nearly impossible to identify the shift since shopping frequency for the most part is unchanged from last year and actually up a little bit from last fall. You have to get down to the store level to see marked changed in visits and of course digging deeper you can the shift play out by store share of spend. The one chain that has been hurt the most in terms of store visits and share of spend over the past year is Abercrombie & Fitch, but that's not the whole story. With respect to A&F, specifically, their brand perception ratings remain extremely strong but those admirable ratings are not translating into actual purchases. On the flip side, we look at retailers like Aeropostale and The Buckle who both have relatively low perception ratings, yet both have experienced sizable gains in store visits, initial purchases, repeat purchases, and planned purchases since last year.

With the exception of Hot Topic (the unofficial home of all things Twilight related), the accessories chains like Delia's and Claires have been hit hard in terms of visits and purchases over the past six months. Planned spending on accessories for the rest of the year, especially among the core 13 to 17 year old teen female audience looks to be pretty weak as well.

In terms of seasonal highlights, the outlook for the upcoming prom season can be best described as dull. Instead of dropping $200+ on a dress at Banana Republic or J. Crew, more and more teen females plan to make a subdued, sub $100 purchase at discount retailers. Top mentions were Target, TJ Maxx and Marshalls.

Teen Lifestyle Preview: The Economy

As we near the release of our comprehensive semi-annual Teen Lifestyle report, here's a little preview looking at some teen attitudes related to the national economy. For this question module respondents were asked to rate their agreement with each statement using a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 meant that they "completely agreed" and 1 meant that they "disagreed completely." All of these are benchmark data points.

"I have talk with my parents about what's going on with the economy" - 64% agree

"I have discussed creating some sort of spending budget with my parents" - 37% agree

"My parents have said they are concerned with the economy" - 69% agree

"I am personally concerned about what's been going with the economy" - 64% agree

Will Nintendo's New DSi Become "The iPhone For Kids?"

One of the new DSi portable gaming systems from Nintendo has been making its way around the office since Monday. Last night I had my chance to check it out and play around with it for the first time. After about 15 minutes I was sold on the third iteration of the world's top selling portable system. The $170 DSi fully embraces the two biggest trends in gaming: customization/personalization and multi-player interactivity. Experimenting with all of the new functionality like the music recorder and the built-in digital cameras, it was blazingly clear that Nintendo created the device with those trends at the forefront of their planning. With Wi-Fi and new memory slot, the DSi will introduce its core audience of 8 to 14 year olds to downloadable games, which has the potential to be gigantic.

In the end though, I really think the whole personalization/customization angle will end up being the biggest value prop to the audience. The simple and straightforward image and recording editing tools are spot on. I don't think I'd be going out on a limb when saying the DSi will easily eclipse previous sales records for the DS and DS Lite in short order.

Bravo Shaking Cable Ecosystem Up

With strong viewer momentum and a bold new slate of programs in development, Bravo is putting competitors ranging from MTV and VH1 to E! on notice: we can reach and engage the 18 to 34 year old female audience like no one else. Certainly, the past year has been great for Bravo. Although they're losing "Project Runway" to Lifetime, their performance in terms of popularity ratings have been on the upswing since the third quarter of 2007. Bravo turned in their best performance ever in the recently released Q1 2009 wave of the Top Ten List. Three Bravo programs led by "Top Chef" along with "The Real Housewives of O.C." and "Project Runway"were among the top ten favorite TV programs among college and twentysomething women.

Building off the viewer momentum, the cable net announced a new slate of programs that are decidedly youth focused at their upfront presentation. Headlining the new series is "NYC Prep," a documentary style series that follows a privileged group of six young people who reside on Manhattan's Upper East Side...hmm, a real world version of "Gossip Girl?"

Stormy Monday Blues

It's another stormy Monday in NYC, and we're in full execution mode putting together the latest wave of Tween & Teen Lifestyle. We're in the middle of compiling some of the gaming findings and based on what we're seeing so far (think Wii and Xbox 360) I'm not so sure a newly priced $99 PS2 console system will much if any impact with respect to the larger console system war. It's painfully clear to us that it's a two dog fight between Nintendo and Microsoft.

Switching over to TV for a sec, the strategy being employed by ABC Family should be bottled and sold--their performance over the past year and a half is superb. They have a couple of new shows which tested quite well with our teen and college female panelists including Rommates and Sophie. I'm also looking forward to seeing what the ratings were for SNL...Seth Rogen is right up there with Adam and Will among teen and college men right now...(Jonah Hill isn't too far behind either, btw)

For the 16% of teen and college men who went to a movie this past weekend, chances are they saw Fast & Furious which brought in more than $70 million and among the 13% of kids and tween girls that went to see a movie this past weekend, it's safe to say that just about all of them saw Monsters vs. Aliens which has eclipsed the $100 million mark in two weeks.

And lastly, our team will be evaluating our interest in using Twitter this month, you can find us at twitter.com/youthtrends. Our tentative plan for the month is to have at least one of us post twice a day or more...

Wednesday Musings

- Coca Cola's Glaceau's unit is introducing a new low cal version call Vitaminwater 10 tomorrow. The timing looks to be good. As a reference point, Vitaminwater was the fastest growing soft drink brand purchased by teens and college students in 2008. Nearly one in five (18%) purchased Vitaminwater in '08 compared to less than 9% in '07, that's a huge move in the relatively stagnant beverage category. As can be expected Vitaminwater skews heavily female.

- Saturday night was a record breaking night for Nick's Kids' Choice Awards. The annual awards show turned in some big viewer numbers pulling in nearly 6.0 kids and tweens, I wonder if the appearance of the Jonas Brothers had anything to do with it--the NJ trio went on to capture Favorite Music Group.

- And finally, how about the new promo for "Hannah Montana: The Movie?" You won't find it at the usual suspects like a McDonald's or Burger King, instead the Disney franchise is teaming up with BP, you know, the gas station chain, to promote a new scratch and win game. The new film premieres on the Disney Channel on April 10th. Interesting move, but makes logical sense since most 12 year olds are stuck in their car as Mom pulls in to fill up. In this case, Mom only needs spend about $10 in order to qualify to participate in the promo, not a bad a trade off.

P.S. Our team is testing out Twitter this month to see if it makes sense for us...you can find us at twitter.com/youthtrends

 

Zipcar's Budding Future Driven By Students

For the millions of underclassmen who are unable to have a vehicle parked on campus, the notion of hopping on their school's shuttle for a quick visit to the mall isn't exactly enticing. Students pining for their own mode of transport preferably one with four wheels and an engine have found a friend in Zipcar, the fast growing car sharing service that is creating a fast growing campus network. At last count, more than 120 schools nationwide have signed up for their service.

You can see pretty quickly why the service is growing in leaps and bounds--for those students attending one of the Zipcar partner campuses, they have access to cars 24/7/365. The costs for use are based on the hour not the day like a regular car rental outfit, and in most cases, the standard car rental companies require the driver to be at least 25 years olds, which clearly would be a hurdle for almost all undergrads, let alone the underclassmen who usually aren't allowed to keep a car on campus until their junior or senior year. The Zipcar service is also super easy to use--students can register and reserve a car directly from their mobile phone and the process is actually a lot simpler than you may think.

As they continue to add more partner schools, we have to think of the potential advertising and marketing opportunities from potential one to one sampling to full out branded skins like you see on some of the NYC buses. All in all, the ad opportunities are quite promising, and wonder how long it will be before we start to see some action.