At Long Last, Gossip Girl Ratings Match Quant Findings & Buzz Factor

Truth be told, we knew it would happen at some point, it was really more of a question of when not if. We saw the first indications last October that The CW was finally poised to have a hit in "Gossip Girl" yet all of the buzz and associated popularity ratings we tracked never ended up translating into proportional Nielsen ratings points. Last fall, 16% of teen and college females rated "Gossip Girl" one of their top five favorite TV programs. Based on historical comparisons, that perception rating would translate into a 2.1 to 2.2 Nielsen rating, yet as we saw throughout the 4th quarter of '07, GG never broke the 2.0 barrier.

Jump ahead to this spring and GG shot up to 24% and the third most popular TV program overall. Now we would think that the 26% would translate into a 2.6 to 2.8 Nielsen rating, yet again we never saw it break 2.2. So, what's the deal? Frankly we aren't totally sure, but clearly up until this week there seems to be some sort of disconnect between what the audience is telling us and what Nielsen is reporting. Finally, the tide has shifted. Nielsen came out ratings for GG with a season high 2.7 (all of this of course is among 18 to 34s) which is .4 points higher than the season premiere episode two weeks ago. The net in all of this is simply this: GG is super hot among the teen and college female audience (as we've consistently stated since last October) and it's finally being validated by the de facto measurement service.

Not to be left in the dust is sibling "One Tree Hill," which airs at 9pm right after GG. "One Tree Hill" just posted a 2.4 rating, representative of its best showing since the end of the 2006. One Tree was tied for the tenth most popular TV program among teen and college females based on our most recent wave of the Lifestyle Report. All of this is much needed good news for The CW.