GenDigital

2010 Youth Macro Trends & Predictions

With 2009 nearly in the books, it's time once again to take stock of what has been a highly eventful year in media, marketing, entertainment and technology. As we prepare to say goodbye to 2009 and welcome in 2010, we are pleased to present the lone qualitative deliverable within the Youth Trends portfolio: the annual Youth Macro Trends & Predictions report for 2010.

The 2010 Youth Macro Trends & Predictions hones in on 12 large scale consumer trends that will shape youth behavior in the year to come. Here's a quick look at the 12 featured in the report. Visit the Youth Trends store to learn more or download a copy.

2010 Youth Macro Trends & Predictions:

- Media & Marketing: Quality over Quantity

- Media Consumption: The CDC (context, distribution and customization)

- Mobile Mainstreaming

- Crowdsourcing

- Values-Driven Discretionary Purchasing

- Controller-Free Video Gaming

- QR Codes

- Exclusive Lifecasting

- All Packed Raring To Go

- Quarterlife Crisis

- Subtle & Softer Fashion

- Eco-Instant Gratification

Teen Top Ten List Report: Q3 2009

The latest wave of Top Ten for the teen segment is now available via the Youth Trends Research Store. This wave of Top Ten covers the top TV shows, magazines, web destinations, musical artists, video game titles, movies, celebrities and clothing retailers. The Q3 '09 wave was completed the week of August 17th using a sample of 1,011 teens between the ages of 13 and 18. The final wave of the year for Top Ten will be conducted in the next two weeks.

Q1 Video Game Round Up

For the most part it looks like the video game category seems to be holding up relatively well despite the marked decline we've seen in teen and college student discretionary spending. Among the 84% of the teens and college students who own at least one video game system, nearly a third, some 32% purchased at least one video game title during the first quarter of 2009 with an average purchase price of $47.

The most commonly purchased titles continue to skew rather heavily towards the Wii console system as well as the Xbox 360. The PS3 seems to be picking up the scraps of what's left, but clearly they're not performing nearly as well. In our minds, the bigger story playing out is the sizable increase in online video game play via subscription services with Xbox Live leading the way. The percentage of teens and college students who subscribed to an online video game service increased to 14% during the first quarter compared to slightly less than 6% on a year over year basis. On title by title basis, the top ten new games purchased during the first quarter included:

1. Madden NFL 09

2. Resident Evil 5

3. Wii Fit

4. Call of Duty: World at War

5. Mario Kart

6. Halo Wars

7. Rock Band 2

8. MLB 09 The Show

9. My Fitness Coach

10. Halo 3

 
In terms of visibility for the rest of year, teen and college student video game system owners plan to purchase an average of 1.7 game titles over the next six months, compared to 2.2 titles last year. 

The Latest Math on GTA IV

Happy Friday. The parent company of the Grand Theft Auto franchise, Take Two Interactive came out with their latest quarterly report yesterday, which included sales data through May 31 for the latest installment: GTA IV. In a word: unreal. Since the release of GTA IV on April 29, the company has sold a whopping 8.5 million copies which amounts more than a quarter a million a day...let me say that again...a quarter million (actually it's more like 257,576) copies of GTA IV sold every single day since the release. That's nuts. It's no wonder why the company reported net income of $98.2 million reversing a loss $51.2 million posted a year earlier. In essence the video game industry is quite similar the move studio business. One blockbuster new release or DVD release can make or break a quarter, or sometimes even a year. As we get ready to put out the Q2 wave of our Top Ten List report, I have to think that GTA IV will come in number one across the board for teens and college students in the video games over taking Q1 number one Halo 3.

Records Will Be Broken With GTA IV Release Tonight

Last year's top selling game title, Halo 3, holds the record for first-week sales, at nearly $300 million. All indications lead us to believe that the record will soon be broken starting at midnight tonight when Grand Theft Auto IV hits stores shelves. Expect long lines outside gaming retailers like EB World and Gamestop. Along with the Wii Fit from Nintendo (which won't be released until May 21...more on that later), GTA IV is already the top pre-ordered title on Amazon. GTA IV will be released for the category leading Xbox 360 console, which 17% of teens and college students own and Sony PlayStation 3, owned by 5% of teens and college students. There is little crossover console ownership. Only 14% of Xbox 360 owners also own a PS3. Much like the buzz and anticipation leading up to last year's release of Halo 3, the buzz surrounding GTA IV has been nothing short of non-stop since early February. Here's the killer stat: more than half of Xbox 360 or PS3 owners, which representative of some 1.6 million teens and college students plan on purchasing GTA IV and nearly a third of them, about half of million say they plan on purchasing it the week its released. Just doing some quick math, it works out to $100 million in sales for GTA IV, and of course that does not take into account the hard game charging twentysomething demo. Video game tracker NPD Group releases its April game title sales data on May 15, expect to see GTA IV take the crown from Halo 3 as the most successful release of all time.

Video Game Industry Rips Through March...More Good News Coming

What a difference a couple of years make...The video game industry has been on a tear of late and there is no reason to think that will change anytime soon as more highly coveted titles, including the much anticipated release of the new Grand Theft Auto series drops in a couple of weeks. NPD Group, which tracks the video game category reported a blow out out month for gaming software companies as well as sales of console systems, led again by Nintendo's Wii. All told, sales of video game titles soared 63% in March on a year over year basis to nearly $1.0 billion. Much of the gain came from the release of the new Super Smash Bros. title, "Brawl" which sold nearly three million units during the month. Sales of Wii systems in March reached 700,000+ more than the combined sales of Xbox 360 systems and PS3 systems. Based on all of our tween, teen and college gaming research data, the Wii continues to be the console of choice for the youth market and again will more than likely end up in the top position on this year's Holiday Gift Wish List Report. It's just absolutely amazing what the Wii has done so far. I'd even go as far to say what the iPod did to the digital music industry, the Wii is having the same effect on the gaming category, it's just out of this world. For Nintendo, not to be outdone by sales of its category leading Wii system, also registered a healthy up tick in sales of the DS portable system which grew to nearly 700,000 units, up from under 600,000 the prior month. We've seen DS be especially popular among tween girls, ages 8 to 11, which represents a demographic that's relatively new to the category overall. As the release date of Grand Theft Auto IV draws closer, I think it is pretty safe to go out on a very sturdy limb and say they'll sell more than 2.0 million copies by the end of this calendar year and will certainly be one of the top three titles for the year. I'm sure the consumer watchdog groups will love to hear that. On that note, Happy Friday!

New and Promising MMOG For Students & Alumni

It is a rather daunting task to always try and keep one or two steps ahead of market trends. Occasionally stuff pops up or lands on our radar and catches us a little by surprise. Fortunately for us, the NY Times did not miss this. In today's online version of the Times, a fast growing MMOG (massive multi-player online game) targeting college students and alumni is featured. It's a great read. The game is called GoCrossCampus and was started by five Ivy League students last fall. In a fashionable grassroots manner, the game has already spread to nearly 25 campuses since going live. Does this remind you of anything? Certainly the game and aspects of the game is not appealing to all students like the way Facebook is, but what I like best about the game is its relative simplicity combining the social aspects related to school loyalty and good old fashioned competition. What's more, their model can scale to corporate customers (Google is already one) and different types of national organizations. At its essence, the game is this generation's online version of strategy and warfare games Risk and Battleship on steroids. I think there is huge potential for their offerings especially as they continue to grow their player base for marketers to step-in and get involved with some non-traditional tactics. I'm just happy I didn't miss this one today because I'm certain this is not the last time we'll come across them.

Wii Today Gone Tomorrow

At recent client presentations, we've dropped not so subtle hints to attendees that if they were considering purchasing a Wii for their children or young relatives (or perhaps even for themselves) to do it sooner rather than later due to extreme lack of supply expected next month smack dab in the middle of the holiday rush. Well, our next month prediction now looks to be too conservative of a call, since we are already seeing Nintendo's lack of supply this month evidenced by two recent reports from gaming retailers and online retailers. It seems the window of opportunity has passed. Locked out purchasers will have to turn to eBay and spend upwards of $400 to $500 for the current number one, best selling gaming system worldwide.

Hello Halo 3

After a little bit of a hiatus and some worldwide travel we are back. In the gaming realm, big news is the release of Halo 3, the year's most anticipated new title as of midnight this morning. I think it is only fitting that the New York Times began their story on the release highlighting a 18 year-old college freshmen at the University of Washington who was quoted as saying he would only have $0.73 left in his bank account after he successfully completed his purchase of the new game. Nice touch. I wonder if the freshmen is aware of any penalty fees associated with having an account below a certain amount, but that is an entirely different story for another time. Anyway, back to Halo 3. We have been hearing the excitement from our panelists since as early as May of this year for Halo 3. The question we have been pondering here is whether one single game title can bolster the sales of Xbox 360 at a time when the Wii is absolutely killing everybody else, including Microsoft. The record to beat for Halo 3 is $125 million, that's the sales number Halo 2 hit in its first 24 hours. Our expectation is that Halo 3 will most likely exceed that total by $10 to $15 million.

Is Halo 3 Xbox's Trump Card?

If the Xbox was sick and went to the doctor, he might order a prescription of Halo 3 to help cure the sickness. I don't think too many people would argue that Microsoft and its gaming unit have been pretty sick of late. They recently lost a top executive and they are reeling from a $1.5 billion charge relating to warranty extensions for messed up Xbox 360 systems. All that said, there may be a happy ending for the company that is still yet to turn a profit out of a business unit it has poured billions of dollars into over the past ten years. The happy ending comes in the form of this year's most eagerly awaited gaming title release: Halo 3. The title is set to be released in late September and the expectation is that Halo 3 will in fact put Microsoft's gaming unit in the black for the first time ever. According to our latest research, just over 7% of all teens and college students owned an Xbox 360 system while another 18% (28% of males) owned the original Xbox system. For comparison sake, 7% currently own a Wii system. We expect Xbox 360 system ownership to increase to 14% to 15% by the end of this year, representative of approximately 500,000 new owners. We have reason to believe that one of the main reasons why the audience will be purchasing the Xbox 360 system will be to play Halo 3, which is being designed specifically for play on the Xbox 360 system. The notion is that the millions of original Xbox owners who played Halo 2, still one of top selling game titles ever quarter) will bite the bullet and upgrade to the new, more powerful system in anticipation of the release of Halo 3. So far, that notion seems to be holding up, but it is still a little too early tell if the strategy will play out as planned. Come late October/early November though, we should have a much better handle on how things are progressing. Several people who follow the gaming industry have suggested Microsoft cut the price of the Xbox 360 system to keep it competitive with the recently reduced price of PlayStation 3, but so far, the company has yet to bow to pricing pressure and has stated it has no such plans to do so. Personally, I don't think a price cut on the system will make any material difference. The audience that plays Halo 2 and is fired up to play Halo 3 probably won't fret too much when it comes to laying down the plastic to purchase the news system and the $60 title.