GenDigital

2010 Youth Macro Trends & Predictions

With 2009 nearly in the books, it's time once again to take stock of what has been a highly eventful year in media, marketing, entertainment and technology. As we prepare to say goodbye to 2009 and welcome in 2010, we are pleased to present the lone qualitative deliverable within the Youth Trends portfolio: the annual Youth Macro Trends & Predictions report for 2010.

The 2010 Youth Macro Trends & Predictions hones in on 12 large scale consumer trends that will shape youth behavior in the year to come. Here's a quick look at the 12 featured in the report. Visit the Youth Trends store to learn more or download a copy.

2010 Youth Macro Trends & Predictions:

- Media & Marketing: Quality over Quantity

- Media Consumption: The CDC (context, distribution and customization)

- Mobile Mainstreaming

- Crowdsourcing

- Values-Driven Discretionary Purchasing

- Controller-Free Video Gaming

- QR Codes

- Exclusive Lifecasting

- All Packed Raring To Go

- Quarterlife Crisis

- Subtle & Softer Fashion

- Eco-Instant Gratification

Counterintuitive Approach: Hip Streetwear Retailer Metropark Files For Public Offering

This definitely caught my eye. How about this for bucking against the grain of an overall retail environment that shall we say...is currently operating in the doldrums? The retailer is Metropark, the brainchild child Orval Madden whose Hot Topic was once the love of emo tots nationwide. Metropark is capitalizing on targeting what they consider to be an undeserved demographic segment (no argument here): 20 to 35 year olds with hipster street brands like Affliction and Obey, among other premium labels. They've grown like a weed in the past couple of years and now have 43 stores, 14 of which are in the hipster fiefdom of California. I had some time to kill before a meeting and ended up in the Metropark store in Irvine not so long ago. I've got to tell you, with their whole shtick, they're definitely on to something. It's not so much the blaring music you'd find at A&F, but it's the whole package--a sorta hybrid of music and entertainment and the fashion items that go along with it. Although they say it's the 20 to 35 year olds they're really after, it looked like many of the shoppers in the Irvine location were no older than 17, of course it's California, so they were actually probably 15 or 16. You could see this type of environment working really well in markets around NYC, Miami, Chicago, Dallas, Portland, Seattle and pretty much anywhere in So Cal. I'd think they probably veer away from conservative New England and the interior U.S. Regardless of what I think, it's great to see someone targeting a younger demographic in an industry that has been taking a beating really perform. You'd also have to think Metropark can make a splash in international hipster markets a la Tokyo, London etc. with their new found capital from their offering. We'll see...

Nike Succumbs To Pressure and Pulls New Vick Shoe Line

If you get caught with drugs, no problem, you're still good to go. If you get caught with a prostitute, still no problem, you're good to go. If you are alleged to have been cruel to animals, your cooked. After a bevy of pressure from several high profile individuals and organizations, including the American Humane Society, Nike, the top selling athletic brand among teens and young adults, released a statement yesterday saying they would suspend the release of its fifth signature shoe named for Michael Vick, the Air Zoom Vick V, which was due to hit store shelves later this summer. Vick has already been found guilty in the eyes of the media and the reality is, he has had little due process so far. The dogfighting allegation is really just the latest in a string of bad press for the former Virginia Tech superstar quarterback. There was the case of the obscene gesture to fans last year and also the case of the mysterious water bottle with the brown substance. Who knows what the real deal is, but what we do know is that his popularity has waned significantly over the past two years among teen and college males. Two years ago he was right up there with Tiger, Shaq, Peyton and Dwayne. Now, he isn't receiving enough responses from our panelists to register in the top 25 mentions. To be fair though, it isn't football season yet, and clearly football players like Peyton and Reggie Bush pull much higher numbers in the fall.

Under Armour To Target Females After Conquering Male Market

When you think about total game changers in the youth and young adult retail category over the past two years, there is a certain shoe manufacturer from Colorado that would most likely come to mind first. Of course we're talking about Crocs. Perhaps under the radar a little bit, but certainly benefiting from the explosive growth of organized youth sports, both team and individual, as well as the increasing number of young people who are regularly exercising and working out, you might not think of Under Armour, unless you visited a high school gym lately, because they are everywhere, which might explain how the company has gone from $20MM to $430MM in annual revenues over the past four years. Now, after creating this new category niche of apparel in the performance space (and forcing top behemoth competitors like Nike and Adidas to innovate quickly and bring a similar product link to market) Under Armour has set its sights on the other gender, and our prediction is that they will succeed. Why? For the same reasons they have been wildly successful targeting high school and college aged men who participate in organized sports or regularly work out. Guess what, the girls are doing the same thing, and in some cases, even more so. Think we're nuts? Go do a search on high school women's lacrosse, volleyball or field hockey, the three fastest growing female interscholastic sports nationally according to our latest Teen Lifestyle Report. It will be interesting to see what the new tagline is for the female line..."we must protect this house" might not resonate as much.

Youth Retailer Steve & Barry's Cuts Deal With Sarah Jessica Parker

Former Sex & The City star Sarah Jessica Parker, whose character on the show was known for her voracious consumption of luxury goods is hooking up with popular youth-focused discount retailer Steve & Barry's to create her own clothing line. The new clothing line, dubbed "Bitten," is scheduled to launch on June 7th. Steve & Barry's have been growing like gangbusters over the past five years. They currently have 200 stores nationwide and there are aggressive plans to open another 100 locations this year. Their value proposition to consumers is quality merchandise at deep discount prices, which was Sarah Jessica's main draw to the opportunity. Although they don't advertise too much, the retailer drew a lot of attention last year when they partnered with Knick basketball star and born and breed New Yorker Stephon Marbury to create Starbury, a $15 pair of basketball shoes that the Knick star actually plays in.

Teen Retailer Numbers in for February

If you are interested in following what's going on in the ultra-competitive teen specialty retail industry, USA Today has a nice little round up of February comps for the leaders. The comps are based on February '07 sales vs. February '06 sales. The percentage leader is surf-inspired Zumiez which experienced an increase of 12.4%. It was interesting to see Zumiez grow while arch-rival and board-style pioneer Pacific Sunwear decrease by nearly 6.0 percent. Category leader Abercrombie & Fitch also had a bad month, down 6.0% from last year while their main competitor American Eagle had an increase of 6.0%. Coincidence, not really...we've been hearing from panelists since back to school last year that they are spending more money at AE instead of A&F.

AT&T's Foray Into Retail Looks A Lot Like Apple

How does that saying go? Oh right, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Well, if you go ahead and visit one of the new AT&T "Experience" stores, I think you'll notice a lot of similarities in terms of look, feel and attitude, to the incredibly popular and successful Apple retail stores. The leading wireless service provider hopes to open 11 "Experience" megastores by the end of this year with the objective of making the whole process of purchasing a cell phone and other communications equipment and accessories a lot more fun. You have to think though, it's a lot (or at least somewhat considerable) different shopping for a computer or musical device compared to a cell phone...right? You don't necessarily need 5,000 square feet to sell a dozen/dozen and a half cell phone models as compared to selling a couple different computer lines and iPod lines? I wish I could be a bit more articulate on the subject, but ultimately, I just don't see thousands of young consumers visiting these type of store environments the way they visit Apple stores. 

Good Holiday Season For Luxury Retailers

One of our three key trends for 2007 is the concept of luxury going mainstream. No longer is it the case where just a privileged few carry Coach handbags at NYU or UCLA or some other fashion epicenter. You'll see those same $200 and $300 handbags carried by young women at the University of Oklahoma or Ohio State. And it doesn't stop there. You'll see it in premium denim purchases and other apparel purchases as well as prestige beauty and cosmetic products. Brands once reserved for 25-34 or 25-49 year old women are being scooped up by 17 to 24 year old women in droves. So, it should come as no surprise to see that the retailers that fared the best this past holiday season were the luxury retailers lead by Nordstrom. Where do you think all that extra growth came from? Gen Y, of course, or most precisely, the parent's of Gen Y purchasing for them.

Look Out Victoria's Secret, Here Comes J.C. Penney

Lately, it seems the intimate category is about as hot as the premium denim category. Almost every week you hear about a new product line from a specialty clothing retailer (the latest announcement coming from American Eagle Outfitters) or a discount department store. Long known for its in-store brand success (think Arizona Jeans), J.C. Penney is embarking on its most aggressive in-store brand launch to date: a new line of 4,000 intimate products under the name Ambrielle that will hit their stores beginning in the Spring of 2007. Nationally, Victoria's Secret has about a 30% share of the intimate market, but among teen and college women that number is closer to 42%. Analysts covering the retail sector say J.C. Penney's past successes cultivating and growing their own brands should give them a head start and an edge with the launch of the new Ambrielle line.

Helio To Take Brick and Mortar Route

Helio, the youth-focused MVNO jointly owned by ISP Earthlink and South Korean telecom giant SK Telecom announced plans to open several retail stores in major U.S. markets before the year is over. The first store will be conveniently located next to the company's LA headquarters in nearby Santa Monica. In case you aren't familiar with the MVNO, Helio's value proposition is all about services on top of traditional talk time minutes. Their focus is on promoting the service's game, music and video offerings instead of just minutes. Although MVNOs like Mobile ESPN and Disney Mobile have received a lot of ink over the past six months, the reality is that most have gained little traction in the marketplace. According to our latest research the major carriers which include Verizon Wireless, Cingular Wireless, Sprint/Nextel and T-Mobile have about a 90% share of the youth and college market. Only Boost Mobile, with a 3% share and Virgin Mobile with a 2% share, show up in our latest results. Helio hopes their retail stores will be somewhat comparable to Starbucks where potential young customers will come in and hang out in addition to shopping for service. The Helio store employees will encourage visitors to not only check out the Helio phones but also play video games and go online. Will it work? My initial reaction is no, however SK Telecom, one of the backers of Helio, has some serious capital behind it and as long as they remain committed to the venture who knows what could happen a couple of years down the road.