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At Long Last, Gossip Girl Ratings Match Quant Findings & Buzz Factor

Truth be told, we knew it would happen at some point, it was really more of a question of when not if. We saw the first indications last October that The CW was finally poised to have a hit in "Gossip Girl" yet all of the buzz and associated popularity ratings we tracked never ended up translating into proportional Nielsen ratings points. Last fall, 16% of teen and college females rated "Gossip Girl" one of their top five favorite TV programs. Based on historical comparisons, that perception rating would translate into a 2.1 to 2.2 Nielsen rating, yet as we saw throughout the 4th quarter of '07, GG never broke the 2.0 barrier.

Jump ahead to this spring and GG shot up to 24% and the third most popular TV program overall. Now we would think that the 26% would translate into a 2.6 to 2.8 Nielsen rating, yet again we never saw it break 2.2. So, what's the deal? Frankly we aren't totally sure, but clearly up until this week there seems to be some sort of disconnect between what the audience is telling us and what Nielsen is reporting. Finally, the tide has shifted. Nielsen came out ratings for GG with a season high 2.7 (all of this of course is among 18 to 34s) which is .4 points higher than the season premiere episode two weeks ago. The net in all of this is simply this: GG is super hot among the teen and college female audience (as we've consistently stated since last October) and it's finally being validated by the de facto measurement service.

Not to be left in the dust is sibling "One Tree Hill," which airs at 9pm right after GG. "One Tree Hill" just posted a 2.4 rating, representative of its best showing since the end of the 2006. One Tree was tied for the tenth most popular TV program among teen and college females based on our most recent wave of the Lifestyle Report. All of this is much needed good news for The CW.

Fall Television Preview Report Highlights

We just wrapped up our fourth annual Fall Television Preview Report, one of our five seasonal trend report supplements. The annual supplement is based on a hybrid interview, one part quantitative and one qualitative with 950 members of the Youth Trends proprietary panel that are classified as heavy TV viewers, that is they watch at least 15 hours of TV per week. The first part of the interview enables participating panelists to stream trailers as well as read synopses of 23 new and returning TV series. After viewing each trailer and reading the corresponding synopsis, panelists rate the program against a series of attributes including planned viewing, general appeal and likelihood of live group viewing or appointment viewing as it is more commonly referred to as. The second part of the interview queries panelist habits and attitudes as it relates to TV viewing as we continue to evaluate important emerging topics like the impact of online streaming and the influence of TV advertising, among other topics addressed.

So, without further a due, the new TV series that received the strongest net perception ratings and planned viewing goes to "Fringe," which will air on FOX beginning with a two-hour premiere on September 9th before settling in to its regular one-hour time slot on Tuesdays at 9pm. "Fringe" is a sci-fi/drama series created by J.J. Abrams, who already has a long resume of hit series including "Felicity" and of course "Lost." Following "Fringe" the number two rated new series is HBO's "True Blood." It's the first time we've seen a new series airing on a premium channel crack the top five. Like "Fringe" HBO's "True Blood" has some strong creative pedigree behind hit. Alan Ball, the creator of former college cult hit fav "Six Feet Under" is the executive producer. The show is based on the Southern Vampire Mysteries book series and takes place in a small Louisiana town. It has been a while since we've seen something drop in the vampire genre, a genre mind you that has fared quite well over the years with the youth audience--remember Buffy and spin off Angel? The third rated new TV series "Dollhouse" also airs on FOX although unlike "Fringe" it won't premiere until the beginning of next year. The fourth and fifth rated new shows will both air on NBC. "Kath and Kim" is the only comedy series to come in within the top five. Much like "The Office," "Kath & Kim" is based on an foreign import coming by way of Australia where it is consistently one of the top rated shows. It's definitely promising with a strong cast including Molly Shannon and Selma Blair leading the way. Former teeny bopper pin up star Christian Slater returns to TV with a drama series called "My Own Worst Enemy" rounding out the top five.

A couple of interesting notes. ABC had two new shows in the top five last year, both of which ended up as top 15 shows through the second half of '07 and first half of '08 with "Samantha Who?" and "Private Practice." The only new ABC show to crack the top 10 this go around was "Life on Mars" which came in tied for eighth. Noticeably absent from the top 10 is the much ballyhooed return of Gen X fav "Beverly Hills 90210" which will air on The CW. It came in tied for 11th among female panelists and 17 out of 23 shows overall. I guess this crop of teens and young adults don't remember Brenda and Kelly the same way some twentysomethings and thirtysomethings still do.

In terms of the top returning TV series, by a huge margin, MTV's "The Hills" came out on top and if all indicators are spot on, the season four premiere on August 18th will easily break last year's record breaking premiere. No surprise with the second most anticipated returning series and current number one TV show, it's "Grey's Anatomy" of course. The sci-fi loving panelists eagerly await the return of Hayden and friends with "Heroes" landing in the third slot. Rounding out the top five are two more ABC shows including the NBC transplant "Scrubs" and sophomore comedy "Samantha Who?" 

Gossip Girl Goes Risque To Promote Return

The dust has settled from the writer's strike and the networks are back in the business of airing new episodes...finally. Last week's return episode of "The Office" was classic. Although, NBC might catch a little heat for the bleeped out f-word, but hey, it was still funny. A network that already has been catching some heat from consumer watch dog groups is The CW. They might find their dial turned up even more this week as they launch a new campaign promoting the return of one of their top shows, "Gossip Girl." In addition to pushing the boundaries of good ole "sex sells" equity, the campaign makes liberal use of the tag "OMFG." Many of you probably already know "OMG" stands for "Oh My God." You can guess what the "f" stands for. The complaints are sure to fly into their general counsel's office, but at the same time, their mission of creating buzz for the return of the network's only new show to stick will most certainly be accomplished--the viewers will tune in come April 21st. The problem is not so much who the creative is targeting--mainly 18 to 34 year olds, even though a decent percentage of teens watch Gossip Girl as well as evidenced by our Teen Top Ten List report and Tween & Teen Lifestyle Report, but the characters themselves. After all, Gossip Girl is about a bunch of well to do kids attending a ritzy Manhattan prep school. Could you imagine Aaron Spelling running a piece of creative like this back in the 90s for Beverly Hills 90210? Chances were probably slim to none, and slim just left the room.

The Hills "Bonus Season" Is Really A Huge Bonus For MTV

Well, all I have to say is wow, or even super wow to numbers that came out for last week's first episode of "The Hills" bonus season supplement to season three. Last Monday's episode drew in the most viewers ever for MTV's top rated series. It narrowly beat out the December finale by 100K viewers to come in at 4.8 million viewers. Just as impressive, MTV said it had 1.8 million streams of the episode last Tuesday, the first full day after the episode ran on-air. In the coveted 12 to 34 year old viewing demographic, last Monday's Hills premiere was far and away the most watched prime time show. Clearly, the bonus episodes will provide MTV with some extra juice as they head into the upfront buying season as they once again defy the skeptics by their uncanny ability to draw more young people than anyone else. Bonus episode 2 of 8 airs tonight at 10pm EST.

High School Confidential Scores

I have to admit this one came as a bit of a surprise. Anecdotal research from panelists showed relatively low levels of awareness for WE's High School Confidential and only fair levels of planned viewing. Clearly, we must have missed something. The premiere ended up with 1.3 million viewers, an all-time high mark for the tier 2 cable network, according to Nielsen. I DVRd the episode but haven't watched it yet. I didn't realize until this morning that they were only running eight episodes, no doubt their testing the waters before making a larger commitment. If the numbers hold up around 1.0 million viewers, there's little doubt the show will be back. I first posted about HS Confidential over the summer. The concept that the reality series was something of an epic following a group of upper middle class teen girls through four year of high school seemed interesting...interesting enough that more than a million people tuned in for the premiere. Now the real challenge, can they hold on to their audience and possibly even grow it? I'll let you know my thoughts after I watch the first episode tonight.

Quarterlife To Get Unique Dual Play on Broadcast & Cable

It is not a precedent, but this is definitely unique. Two networks are partnering to air the same series (at different times). The new series is called "quarterlife," and if it might sound a little familiar to you. You may remember that "quarterlife" got its start as a web-based series airing in 8-minute short form increments. Along with Michael Eisner's "Prom Queen" webisodes, "quarterlife" was a top traffic performer on MySpace's fledging video channel over the past year. It's now about to enter a whole new life as an hour long series airing on both the broadcast network NBC and cable network MTV. From the looks of it, this seems like a win win all around. NBC under a new programming regime, is actively out in the development marketplace scouring for the next would be hit. At the same time, MTV is experiencing a huge resurgence in popularity thanks to the recently completed third season of "The Hills" (the strongest performing to date) and the rookie season of the racy "A Shot at Love With Tila Tequila." "quarterlife" features a bunch of twentysomethings working and living in the big city. The story concept might not be that unique, but the distribution is noteworthy. On the afternoon of 2/26, "quarterlife" will make its debut on MTV and later that night it will premiere on NBC. It is expected to move towards more of a regularly weekly schedule in early March. The show was created by a duo of Emmy-winning writers whose previous credits include former cult favorite "My So Called Life" that acted as the launch pad for Claire Danes entry into stardom land. It's great to NBC employing non-traditional strategies to goose its line-up and the extra air-play probably won't end up hurting MTV either. This relatively new form of "double distribution" could act as a catalyst for other broadcast and cable networks to follow.

Another Perspective on Current TV: Lack of Reach

We all know how much the youth and young adult audience admires for Vice President Al Gore. We reported back in June that based on the results of our Teen and College Lifestyle Report, they would elect the recent Nobel Peace Prize winner the next president, even though he has said numerous times that he won't be running. What's more, his award winning documentary movie, "An Inconvenient Truth" has a been a must watch for the increasing number of environmentally conscious teens and young adults. Besides being a filmmaker and unofficial steward of the global environment, Mr. Gore is also the chairman of cable upstart Current TV, which targets the 18 to 34 year old audience. The day after the former VP was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, he was featured as a keynote speaker at the ANA conference in Phoenix pitching his cable network to potential advertisers. One might conclude that everything Mr. Gore has touched since his unsuccessful (or successful depending on who you are talking with) presidential run, has turned to gold, which by the way is trading is at a 31 year high. However, in the case of Current TV, the concept might be gold, but the word is yet to spread to the masses. Today's NY Times has a nice write up on the challenges the youth targeted cable network faces, mainly reaching a wider audience. Without a doubt, their single biggest obstacle is no confirmed ratings. Current is not measured by Nielsen, and regardless of the flack Nielsen gets from everyone in the media community, it remains the de facto measurement service. It is a daunting challenge to grab a share of available dollars without rating points. Taking a cue from Fox News Channel, to be fair and balanced, I've never watched the channel, my cable provider does not carry it. However, I have visited the companion web site on several occasions and visited it last week after a recent re-design. While their model of user-generated content comes off as generally appealing and their format seems unique in nature, without reach, their media proposals get pushed aside or placed on the back burner. If they're in this for the long haul, revenue growth will only come with increased distribution on larger carriers like Comcast and a contract with Nielsen.

The Sitcom Lives Thanks To Samantha Who? Premiere

According to our recently released Fall Television Preview Report, the new ABC sitcom "Samantha Who?" was fourth highest rated new television series among women for planned viewing. Number one of course was "Private Practice," the new "Grey's Anatomy" spin-off, which premiered last month and has been turning in solid ratings so far. "Samantha Who?" starring Christina Applegate premiered last night on the alphabet network and the initial performance looks unusually strong. For all the naysayers out there who have been saying that the network sitcom is dead, "Samantha Who?" begs to differ. Granted the new comedy had a strong lead-in with "Dancing With the Stars," but Nielsen overnights have "Samantha Who?" drawing in nearly 15 million viewers making it the most watched new show of the season, slightly ahead of "Private Practice." This is great news for ABC, who continues to dominate broadcast television among the youth market. Of course the big challenge over the next few months will be holding on to those big numbers, but clearly, they are off to a great start.

MTV Orders Up HS Newspaper Reality Series

Beginning in the first quarter of 2008, for those of us who watch MTV, we might, just might get the opportunity to see some future Pulitzer Prize winners when they were just a bunch of kids as the cable network unveils its latest reality series. Currently in development, the new reality series will be called "The Paper." The show hones in on "The Circuit," the school newspaper for Cypress Bay High School, which is located in Weston, Florida, near Fort Lauderdale. Obviously MTV dev guys did their homework on picking the right high school to focus on..."The Circuit" has won numerous awards, including best overall high school newspaper. As the synopsis goes, apparently there is a lot of tension and stress in the newsroom (how many high schools have a newsroom let alone still publish a paper nowadays, but that is neither here nor there), and through the initial eight episodes of "The Circuit" we all will be treated to a big hunking slice of that drama. Based on the geographic location of the show, it might end up being the intellectuals version of Laguna Beach, sorry, I mean Newport Harbor, they were kicked out of Laguna last season. Who knows, but it's definitely worth catching the first episode.

Tween Star Efron Rules Teen Choice Awards

Move over Justin Timberlake, the teen audience has spoken, and they have chosen their latest star. Star is probably somewhat of an understatement in this case. The funny thing is, the star is best known for reaching teen's younger siblings: the tween segment. But no matter, Zac Efron is taking stardom to new levels through the recording breaking performance of High School Musical 2, the highest rated movie in cable television history, not a bad thing to put on the ole resume. At last night's Teen Choice Awards, the young Hollywood heartthrob grab the ultimate "hottie" title and his movie grabbed the year's top honor as "best TV movie." The jarring screams of young adolescent teen girls for Effron was reminiscent of four lads from across the pond from an earlier era, a much earlier era. Tween stars seemed to rule the roost at this year's show, with Miley Cyrus, star of hit show Hannah Montana, walking off with two awards, including "best comedy TV program." The results of the awards show begs the question: should the Teen Choice Awards re-brand itself as the Tween Choice Awards, or should we be more liberal when defining the "teen" audience. Clearly all of the momentum is on the side of Hollywood's youngest celebs, and given the fact that there will be a third installment of High School Musical (on the big screen next time), is there any reason to doubt that young people will be all about the "young" for the foreseeable future?