GenDigital

2012 Youth Macro Trends, Predictions & Insights

With 2012 on the horizon, we're pleased to present our annual Youth Macro Trends, Predictions & Insights report for the coming year as well as revisit a handful of trends and predictions from last year's report to see how they have played out over the course of this year. Rather than providing an exhaustive list of rather meaningless trends, our main objective is to provide a select number of actionable views that have multiple implications across various industries and product categories. If we did our job correctly, there should be something in here for everyone, and we hope that something results in a conversation starter, a strategy meeting, or if nothing else, a definitive edge on the why behind the what for all things youth-culture related.

2012 Youth Macro Trends, Predictions & Insights

The Gamification of Youth Marketing & Media

Check In & Buy

The Future of m-Commerce

Tablets Everywhere

Moving Towards The Cloud

Twitter As An Exclusive Social Alternative

Digital Entrepreneurialism

Mining Social Influence

Visual Gratification

2011 Recap: Convergence Everywhere

2011 Recap: Fashion Gets Personal & Athletic

2011 Recap: Purpose-Driven Cause Marketing

2011 Recap: Social Shopping: Click, Shop, Talk & Buy

Tween Online Life Highlights

The latest wave of Tweens Online has just been released. Suffice to say, they're a pretty interesting bunch and apparently a bunch that would prefer not to be left out of the social media game. Rules are rules...right? It's no secret that users need to be at least 13 years of age to be able to register for social media sites like Facebook, Twitter and others. And it certainly doesn't take an advanced tween to figure out all they need to do is fib their birth date by a year or two in order to successfully register. That said, according to the new wave of Tween Online Life, nearly one in four respondents (23% to be exact) said they had a profile page on Facebook, while about one in ten (9%) had a profile page on MySpace.

Beyond gaming the social media ecosystem, it's fair to say you can sum up the online habits of tweens in just one word. That one word is gaming. This is quite impressive - nearly nine in ten tweens regularly participate (once a month or more often) in some sort of online gaming whether it's casual online play, multi-player online play or console-based online play. This participation level is even more robust than tweens and blows away with what we see with the college segment. The reason is simple, gaming at its most basic level for tweens is almost gender neutral. The transition towards the male skew really doesn't begin until about age 13 or 14.

YouTube, ESPN, Google and AddictingGames are among the most popular and most visited sites among tween boys, while tween female favorites include YouTube, Disney, Yahoo and yes...Facebook. More than six in ten (62%) tweens said they streamed at least one video clip on YouTube during the past month while about one in six said they watched a TV show or movie for free on Hulu.

More highlights to follow shortly...

How About Those Superfans!

Our latest research shows that approximately one in six teens and college students can be classified as "superfans" of at least one TV show. The notion of a superfan is defined as those individuals who not only regularly watch a TV series live, but also re-watch episodes online, on-demand, on their DVRs as well as connect with shows (and their characters) via social media. The implications for advertisers are significant as opportunities to connect and ultimately create a dialogue with this special segment of fans go well beyond on-air messaging. For content producers, TV networks and their distributors, superfans can represent the foundation of an integrated social media strategy. Not surprisingly, these superfans are also among the heaviest consumers of entertainment content across a variety of categories. From the perspective of superfans, it's a validation in some respects as they feel a personal connection to a show or a character in the show coupled with a certain level of enthusiasm to talk with others.

Top 5 Superfan TV Shows:

1. True Blood (HBO)
2. Jersey Shore (MTV)
3. Glee (FOX)
4. The Office (NBC)
5. It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia (FX)

2011 Youth Macro Trends & Predictions

Out with the old and in the new. With 2011 now in the horizon, we're pleased to present our annual Youth Macro Trends & Predictions report for the coming year as well as revisit a handful of trends and topics from last year's report to see how they've played out over the course of this year. Instead of providing an esoteric and rather exhaustive list of trends, the main objective with Youth Macro Trends & Predictions is to provide actionable views that have multiple implications across various industries and product categories. Ultimately, there should be something in this report for everyone. That something will hopefully result in a conversation starter, a strategy re-visit and an indelible edge on the why behind the what when it comes to all things youth-culture related. You can view the table of contents here

World Cup 2010

Ok, let's be honest here, up until a few weeks ago, how many of you were familiar with a vuvuzela? Undoubtedly, even we were surprised to see how World Cup fever has gripped this country's youth audience especially in between proms, graduation parties and the start of summer break. The bulk of the audience's TV sports consumption is dominated by football, basketball and baseball, so to see an event like the World Cup rate so highly in this month's Insights Immersion is significant. At least part of the excitement can be linked directly to two factors: coverage and technology and clearly there are synergies between the two factors.

June is kind of a funny month for sports coverage as the NBA wraps up its season, while baseball approaches the mid-season mark. That said, it's fair to say there is a bit of a void so the timing of this year's World Cup is super strategic. The coverage on-air, online and even via mobile devices is reminiscent of an Olympic Games: thoroughly comprehensive and seemingly never ending. If you're a sports fan, it's almost as if you have to tune-in at some point. And that's exactly what the audience has been doing as noted by this month's findings.

World Cup Viewer and Fan Statistics:

- watched at least one game: 27% (37% of males/16% of females)

- watched more than one game: 20% (28% of males/12% of females)

- watched the U.S. team play: 26% (35% of males/16% of females)

- streamed a game online: 16% (24% of males/8% of females)

- streamed game highlights or interviews online: 23% (34% of males/11% of females)

- watched a game on a mobile device: 3% (6% of males/1% of females)

- watched game highlights or interviews on a mobile device: 5% (10% of males/1% of females)

- visited websites like ESPN Soccernet or Yahoo! Sports for World Cup info: 29% (41% of males/17% of females)

- Used Facebook or Twitter to follow World Cup-related activities: 16% (22% of males/10% of females)

Online Video Insights: Paying For Video Content

We recently wrapped up our latest Online Video Insights supplement exploring audience preference and interest as it relates to professional video content a la TV shows and movies. Online Video Insights is a supplementary component of the comprehensive Youth Trends Emerging Media & Entertainment portfolio. Findings for the latest wave (Q1 2010) were based on interviews completed the week of March 15th. The interviews were conducted with just over a thousand members of the Youth Trends Digital Media panel. All of the participating panelists had to stream at least one free or paid TV show or movie during the past month. That was the main qualifier for participation.

Here are some of the key findings:

By a pretty healthy margin, participants were most likely to stream an episode of one of their favorite TV shows they missed on-air. While on-demand viewing and other time-shifted options (DVR viewing) were indicated, it's online streaming that comes out as the most common behavior.

The participants tend to demonstrate a greater willingness to pay for online video content, both TV shows and movies via a monthly subscription fee as opposed to a pay-per-view option. More than one in four participants (27%) said they would at least consider paying $0.99 to stream an episode of one of their favorite TV shows, while about 30% said they would at least consider paying $9.99 a month for unlimited access to their favorite TV shows online.

Exactly a third of participants would at least consider paying $2.99 to stream a full-length movie, while 26% said they would at least consider paying $4.99. Clearly, price is a determining factor for many of the participants. Interestingly enough, more than a third of participants (36%) said they would be more likely to pay for online video content if the videos themselves, contained no advertisements or commercials.

The initial read left price and video type out as variables--about one in ten participants said they would definitely pay for video content online if it was no longer accessible for free. Another 16% said they would consider paying for it. Keep in mind, these are young people who have already demonstrated a propensity to stream content online, so if anything these guys represent more of a targeted potential customer base than that of the overall teen and young adult population. Clearly, interest levels adjust when you start throwing out pricing and different types of accessibility, but at this basic level, you're left with a not so small percentage who will at least consider paying for something that they're not typically accustomed to. YT client subscribers will be able to download the full report tomorrow.

Urbanspoon Moves Into Top Ten Downloaded Apps

For the thirty seven percent of teens and college students who own an iPhone or iPod Touch, here's an interesting new tidbit from our App tracking panel, the restaurant review and recommendation service Urbanspoon is now among the top most downloaded free apps. Based on last month's tracking data, more than one in four members (42%) have downloaded the app to date, proving that young people are beginning to use their connected Apple devices to do more than just download and play games. The Urbanspoon app has some pretty cool functionality. To look for recommendations, users shake their devices and in turn the app spits out some nearby locations. It's intuitive and some simple fun at the same time and enough to make Urbanspoon our app of the month.

Will The iPad Kill? Not So Much Initially, At Least Among Students

Last month, Apple unveiled its latest device to the world, the iPad. Apple is touting the "educational benefits" of the $499 device, but the real question is, will students respond with the same verve as they have with other Apple products in the past? Already a small Pennsylvania college, Seton Hill, announced that it will provide iPads to all of their full-time students next fall. With an enrollment of just over 2,000 students it's a start for the Apple machine, albeit it's not and Ohio State or Univ of Minnesota with 40,000 and 50,000 undergrads.

Clearly Apple has the education market in mind with the iPad as partnerships have also been trickling out with leading textbook publishers including Macmillan and McGraw Hill, among others. The basic concept is that students, as tech savvy as they are, will be more comfortable and adept in consuming their academic material via a multi-touch interactive e-reader device like the iPad as opposed to a more cumbersome (and heavy) 500 page textbook.

Besides the interactive e-reader capabilities, the iPad is really nothing more than oversized version of the already wildly popular iTouch. So, in other words, beyond the supposed convenience of an e-reader device, and a fairly pricey one at that, do students really desire having one more device that already offers many of the same features and functionality they're well accustomed to? The initial vote from our college student panelists is a resounding nay.

As much buzz as the broader e-reader market is receiving, when it comes to the actual end user level of students, awareness, let alone interest is quite weak. And, as can be expected, when you throw in a price tag of $499 (plus data plan costs) interest and intent among students drops even further.

Based on this initial feedback, the strategy to drive immediate adoption would be an institutional type sales approach where Apple would sell iPads in bulk to specific colleges and universities. We suspect the schools would then have to pass along the costs through various student access and tech fees. That said, other than the super tech schools like MIT and Stanford, it's pretty unlikely to see major state-funded institutions sign on quickly (fall 2010) as many are still very much struggling with budget and capital expenditure problems of their own. Chances are, the last thing they want to do is add on one more fee for their students.

Viewing Preferences: TV vs. Online

There is a notion out there that an increasing number of teens and college students are bypassing traditional TV viewing in favor of online viewing. No doubt, online viewing is gaining traction, but it's not necessarily at the expense of traditional viewing for most young people as evidenced by the findings from this month's Insights Immersion. Despite the perceived hype, only about one in ten panelists (11%) can be classified as "online exclusive" TV viewers. The vast majority of panelists, some 67% fall under the cross-platform viewing category, while the remaining 22% have yet to really embrace the Internet as a viewing platform. Interestingly enough, it's the cross-platform viewing segment that watches more TV (both linear and online), averaging about 13.5 hours each week. This certainly makes the cannibalization argument a bit difficult to totally buy into. We'd even go so far as to say that it's the cross-platform viewers that are among the most loyal and engaged fans of their favorite and most watched shows.

Viewing Preference:

- I prefer watching my favorite shows on TV: 72%

- I prefer watching my favorite shows online: 28%

"When I miss a new episode of one of my favorite TV shows, I am most likely to catch up by..."

- streaming the episode online: 56%

- watching a recording on my DVR: 19%

- watching the episode on-demand: 13%

- talking to a friend who watched it: 4%

- other mentions: 8%

Is foursquare The Next Big Thing?

A brief excerpt from the recently released March '10 Insights report, which focuses on the market implications for the fast growing location-based service foursquare: Undoubtedly, the ability to accurately predict the next big thing in digital, mobile and social media is much more of an art than a science. That said, from our perspective there is a fast growing perfect storm made up of user interest, appeal and stickiness leading us to believe the location-based service foursquare is extremely well positioned to become "the next big thing" for the youth and young adult market.

We first discussed the potential market implications for location-based services and mobile applications in the 2009 Youth Trends Macro Trends & Predictions report and have been refining and tweaking our point of view and outlook ever since.

The highly positive feedback, interest and intent expressed by panelists in this month's Insights Immersion represented the final confirmation of our belief that foursquare has the real opportunity to be the killer app of 2010 for the market. Simply put, foursquare has made location-based social networking cool by implementing game-like elements in the form of badges and points into the fabric of its offering. As Twitter encourages its users to tweet, foursquare users "check-in" with their current location. From there, their location is broadcast out to their list of friends who are also using the service.

Ultimately, it's a straightforward value proposition as the app functions mainly as a friend locater, which isn't such a bad thing on a sprawling campus during a hectic Friday or Saturday night. While the friend locater acts as the headline element of the service, it's the ancillary social and game-like features that really distinguish it from other location-based services like Loopt.

Download the March '10 Insights report to read the complete analysis.