GenDigital

Will The iPad Kill? Not So Much Initially, At Least Among Students

Last month, Apple unveiled its latest device to the world, the iPad. Apple is touting the "educational benefits" of the $499 device, but the real question is, will students respond with the same verve as they have with other Apple products in the past? Already a small Pennsylvania college, Seton Hill, announced that it will provide iPads to all of their full-time students next fall. With an enrollment of just over 2,000 students it's a start for the Apple machine, albeit it's not and Ohio State or Univ of Minnesota with 40,000 and 50,000 undergrads.

Clearly Apple has the education market in mind with the iPad as partnerships have also been trickling out with leading textbook publishers including Macmillan and McGraw Hill, among others. The basic concept is that students, as tech savvy as they are, will be more comfortable and adept in consuming their academic material via a multi-touch interactive e-reader device like the iPad as opposed to a more cumbersome (and heavy) 500 page textbook.

Besides the interactive e-reader capabilities, the iPad is really nothing more than oversized version of the already wildly popular iTouch. So, in other words, beyond the supposed convenience of an e-reader device, and a fairly pricey one at that, do students really desire having one more device that already offers many of the same features and functionality they're well accustomed to? The initial vote from our college student panelists is a resounding nay.

As much buzz as the broader e-reader market is receiving, when it comes to the actual end user level of students, awareness, let alone interest is quite weak. And, as can be expected, when you throw in a price tag of $499 (plus data plan costs) interest and intent among students drops even further.

Based on this initial feedback, the strategy to drive immediate adoption would be an institutional type sales approach where Apple would sell iPads in bulk to specific colleges and universities. We suspect the schools would then have to pass along the costs through various student access and tech fees. That said, other than the super tech schools like MIT and Stanford, it's pretty unlikely to see major state-funded institutions sign on quickly (fall 2010) as many are still very much struggling with budget and capital expenditure problems of their own. Chances are, the last thing they want to do is add on one more fee for their students.

Viewing Preferences: TV vs. Online

There is a notion out there that an increasing number of teens and college students are bypassing traditional TV viewing in favor of online viewing. No doubt, online viewing is gaining traction, but it's not necessarily at the expense of traditional viewing for most young people as evidenced by the findings from this month's Insights Immersion. Despite the perceived hype, only about one in ten panelists (11%) can be classified as "online exclusive" TV viewers. The vast majority of panelists, some 67% fall under the cross-platform viewing category, while the remaining 22% have yet to really embrace the Internet as a viewing platform. Interestingly enough, it's the cross-platform viewing segment that watches more TV (both linear and online), averaging about 13.5 hours each week. This certainly makes the cannibalization argument a bit difficult to totally buy into. We'd even go so far as to say that it's the cross-platform viewers that are among the most loyal and engaged fans of their favorite and most watched shows.

Viewing Preference:

- I prefer watching my favorite shows on TV: 72%

- I prefer watching my favorite shows online: 28%

"When I miss a new episode of one of my favorite TV shows, I am most likely to catch up by..."

- streaming the episode online: 56%

- watching a recording on my DVR: 19%

- watching the episode on-demand: 13%

- talking to a friend who watched it: 4%

- other mentions: 8%

Is foursquare The Next Big Thing?

A brief excerpt from the recently released March '10 Insights report, which focuses on the market implications for the fast growing location-based service foursquare: Undoubtedly, the ability to accurately predict the next big thing in digital, mobile and social media is much more of an art than a science. That said, from our perspective there is a fast growing perfect storm made up of user interest, appeal and stickiness leading us to believe the location-based service foursquare is extremely well positioned to become "the next big thing" for the youth and young adult market.

We first discussed the potential market implications for location-based services and mobile applications in the 2009 Youth Trends Macro Trends & Predictions report and have been refining and tweaking our point of view and outlook ever since.

The highly positive feedback, interest and intent expressed by panelists in this month's Insights Immersion represented the final confirmation of our belief that foursquare has the real opportunity to be the killer app of 2010 for the market. Simply put, foursquare has made location-based social networking cool by implementing game-like elements in the form of badges and points into the fabric of its offering. As Twitter encourages its users to tweet, foursquare users "check-in" with their current location. From there, their location is broadcast out to their list of friends who are also using the service.

Ultimately, it's a straightforward value proposition as the app functions mainly as a friend locater, which isn't such a bad thing on a sprawling campus during a hectic Friday or Saturday night. While the friend locater acts as the headline element of the service, it's the ancillary social and game-like features that really distinguish it from other location-based services like Loopt.

Download the March '10 Insights report to read the complete analysis.

Q1 2010 College Top Ten List Report Highlights

Another quarter is almost complete and that brings us a new wave of Top Ten. College is the first to come out this week followed by Kids and Teens next Monday. For some reason, may be it's just the simplicity of the report, Top Ten garners more press mentions than any other YT report, go figure, but I think the concept of ranking against a particular topic is something that most everyone can relate to pretty easily.

Moving onward here, the Q1 wave of College Top Ten was tweaked a bit as the celeb category was broken out by more general Hollywood celeb personalities and sports-specific personalities. We'll also continue to rotate between most socially responsible companies/brands and favorite sports-related activities. When all is said, we covered a total of 12 individual categories including favorite TV shows, magazine titles, musical artists, movie & DVD titles, male Hollywood celebs, female Hollywood celebs, sports celebs, video game titles, web destinations, clothing retailers/brands, footwear brands and sports-related activities. To read the full background and view the table of contents, click here. For non Youth Trends subscribers, Top Ten can be downloaded/purchased for $399.

Some topline highlights:

- TV: relatively unchanged at the top compared to Q4 '09, White Collar debuts among males and American Idol makes a surprise appearance among females

- Mag titles: six of the top ten titles among females are trending downwards on a sequential basis, sorta sums of the category's picture fairly well

- Musical artists: goo goo for Gaga and welcome to the list NeedToBreathe

- Movies & DVDs: V-Day performs as expected, no let up for The Hangover

- Hollywood/sports celebs: Jessica's back at the top, LeBron is still king and Elisha debuts for the first time

- Video game titles: COD Modern Warfare 2, 'nuff said

- Web sites: check out Sporcle, it's legit...

Youth Retail Winners: Aeropostale & The Buckle

As the major youth specialty retailers unveil their fourth quarter results one thing remains crystal clear: the value trend isn't ready to leave us just yet.

Comparatively, the notion that the teen and young adult market is fickle in nature is certainly accurate to a point, but as it relates to their general shopping habits as opposed to specific fashion styles and looks, the concept of a value-driven youth consumer, or perhaps more acutely, the value-driven approached demonstrated by their parents continues to benefit a select few, like Aeropostale, while other remain in a wild game of limbo.

Generally speaking, most youth retailers are experiencing improving sales trends, but there remains this sort of dark cloud hanging overhead that ultimately puts a damper on a more immediate return to profitable growth. It's almost as if they expect to encounter a few more bumps in the road before reaching a smoother track. That said, forecasts for many of the major chains remain rather conservative through the first quarter and quite possibly through the first half of the year.

Much like the back to school '09 shopping season, there are two winners that came out of the fourth quarter: Aeropostale and The Buckle. Let's start with The Buckle.

For those of you not familiar with the Youth Trends research product, The Buckle was the top retailer based on the 2009 Youth Trends Back To School Retail & Shopping Report. Take away the impressive financials they posted in the 4th quarter, the one thing The Buckle has going for it is the intangible measure of a superior coolness factor among its target audience. In fact, based on the latest Youth Trends Teen & College Lifestyle Report, The Buckle ranks among the top three coolest or trendiest retailers to shop at right now. That's more than commendable considering its retail footprint is quite a bit smaller than much larger and better known chains. The Buckle's fourth quarter profit increased 23% compared to a year ago as its net beat Wall St. analyst expectations by six cents.

The Buckle has a good thing going for it in that it offers an array of premium brands the audience and their parents are still very much willing to pay for. These brands include Affliction, Big Star and Rebel Spirit, among others. These brands also represent the macro "tough guy" youth fashion trend which continues to increase in popularity among the masses.

The more value oriented Aeropostale also continues to be one of the bright sports in the youth retail sector as they demonstrated once again with their latest financial results. Their fourth quarter net jumped 42% as sales hit more than $800 million. Same stores sales also increased 9%. Financially speaking, things will get more difficult for Aeropostale in the short term as prior year comparisons will come into play in the first and second quarters.

From the audience's perspective though, it seems as if the picture has never been brighter. Store traffic and several perception-based data points all hit record highs based on the Fall '09 Youth Trends Teen & College Lifestyle Report, and for the first time, more members of the audience said Aeropostale was cooler to shop at than Abercrombie & Fitch. The value of that perception should not be underestimated.

The other facet of Aeropostale's business that is flying a bit under the radar is their relatively new kid's concept store P.S. Aeropostale has plans to add up to 30 new P.S. stores this year. With a bit of a void in the children's and kid's sector for forward thinking fashionable designs, P.S. could be in a rather good position to experience to some immediate success, which in turn will bolster Aeropostale's broader results during the first half of this year. 

Fashion Trends: The Sophisticated Look Returns To Campus

As the spring semester moves along, we've picked up on an interesting fashion trend popping up on campuses around the country. Trendsetting fashionistas on campus are not only getting dressed up when they go out at night, but an increasing number of them are getting dressed up during the daytime hours as well. The "dress up" look, which is clearly a female-driven trend, is inclusive of embellished "hipster" denim, designer flats and/or ballet slippers, premium sweater sets, and perhaps most interesting to us, full make-up and hair. Of course, there are still many students who may dismiss the daytime "dress up" look as a waste of time during the precious morning hours, but it's clear to us based on panelist diaries and photos that dressing up and dressing well all of the time is of growing importance for an increasing number of younger women, especially those who are 21+.

So what's in the closet of a trendsetting fashionista on campus this semester? Here's a quick look at some of the "dress up" staples:

- Apparel: hipster-like skinny jeans are all the rage right now, the darker the denim and the lower the waist, the better

- Footwear: in most cases, the heels are still left for nighttime social activities, but that's not to say daytime footwear is any less sophisticated in appearance though. Stylish slippers and flats from Tory Bruch and Me Too are among the most coveted brands of the moment

- Accessories: it's practicality coupled with some glamor, that's essentially the modus operandi here. Students say finding the right tote is just as difficult if not more difficult than finding the right pair of skinny jeans, so that is certainly saying a lot. The bag has to be versatile enough to handle a laptop, textbooks as well as all the other necessities like the mobile phone, cosmetics and of course the Sigg. The popularity of Coach bags have been upstaged of late by totes from Tory Burch and Marc Jacobs.

- Beauty: just in case this wasn't clear earlier, the total full make up look is totally in right now with designer lip gloss from MAC and Stila among the favorite brands. Have to admit, a few giggles erupted as some young women on campus were sporting their own version of the Lady Gaga inspired "glam look." This certainly bodes well for all of the prestige brands moving forward...

Here Comes Spring Break '10

After two relatively weak Spring Break travel seasons, 2010 looks to be a renaissance year for the near rite of passage for college students around the country. Based on the findings from the latest Insights Immersion, we attribute the marked shift in behavior to a series of factors. For starters, there is a palpable sense of pent up demand, especially among seasoned student travelers that didn't take a trip last spring or perhaps even during their most recent summer break. Also, unlike years past, we saw a significant percentage of student travelers finalize their plans and associated logistics mid way through the fall semester. Related to the advanced planning, we also observed more students traveling in larger groups, typically five or more, which opened them up to group travel discounts in addition to early booking discounts. Lastly, an increasing number of student travelers said their parents were paying for at least some of their if not all of it. Either things are improving in households, or once again parents are sacrificing other purchases for their children's benefit and enjoyment. For many students, especially the first time travelers, Spring Break 2010 will be the notable event or activity of the year.

When all is said and done, 46% of students said they will be traveling during Spring Break, compared to 39% of students last year. Among the 46% of students who will be traveling, more than four in ten (42%) said this was their first Spring Break trip as a college student. The demographic makeup of travelers skews slightly female and planned travel is highest among students attending a school in the northeast and far south.

Planned spending, inclusive of airfare, transportation, lodging, clothing and entertainment came in at $619, up from $572 last year. Spring Breakers will spend an average of four days and three nights at their vacation destinations. Comparatively different from last year, we've seen a resurgence in the number of students who will travel to international destinations, led mainly by spots in Mexico and to a lesser extent, various Caribbean islands. Thirty-six percent of students will travel internationally during Spring Break, up considerably from just 21% of travelers last year.

Among the 64% of students traveling domestically, the top vacation destinations include Panama City Beach, Orlando, South Padre Island, Fort Lauderdale, Miami and relative newcomer Las Vegas. The top international spots are dominated by Mexican resort towns led by Cancun and followed by Acapulco, Cabo San Lucas and Puerto Vallarta. Those students headed to international locales will spend about 32% more on travel and lodging compared to those students who will leave their passports at home.

About half of all student travelers, some 53% said their parents were paying for their entire trip, inclusive of spending money, while 77% said their parents were helping them out financially with at least some of their vacation-related costs. The financial responsibility aspect is perhaps the most impactful difference for students traveling this season. Last year, only about one in three students (31%) said their parents were paying for their Spring Break trip in full, while 57% said they received some financial support from their folks.

Given the return of a robust Spring Break travel season, media companies and brand marketers can once again consider targeted location-based events and other types of marketing programs as viable elements within their overall youth marketing and media mix.