GenDigital

Spring TV Season Expectations

The spring TV season is upon us and is shaping up to be one of interest and intrigue for the market.  From early March through the end of April a total of 15 new TV shows premiered along with the return of new episodes from more than 20 returning series ranging from staples like "South Park" to cult favorites like "Friday Night Lights." During this month's Insights Immersion, panelists rated their planned viewing for all new and returning series after viewing trailers and reading associated plot lines.

A new element we included this go around was a buzz factor, whereby panelists used a scale of 1 to 10 rated each new and returning series. The buzz included conversations panelists may have had regarding the show with their friends, commercials or other advertisements they recalled or something they read about the show prior to this month's Immersion.  And without further a due, the most anticipated TV show for the spring season is the harmonically appealing "Glee," followed by longtime action reality hit, "Dancing With the Stars." 

Here is the full run down of the top ten most anticipated TV shows for the spring season, inclusive of the net planned viewing rating as well as the buzz factor rating.

Spring TV Season Top Ten:

1. Glee (FOX) - 6.7 net/7.4 buzz

2. Dancing With The Stars (ABC) - 6.3 net/6.4 buzz

3. South Park (Comedy Central) - 6.0 net/5.5 buzz

4. Happy Town (ABC) - 5.4 net/6.5 buzz

5. 10 Things I Hate About You (ABC Family) - 4.8 net/5.1 buzz

6. Nurse Jackie (Showtime) - 4.4 net/5.0 buzz

7. The Hills (MTV) - 3.9 net/3.4 buzz

8. Top Chef Masters (Bravo) - 3.7 net/3.9 buzz

9. Justified (FX) - 3.4 net/4.1 buzz

10. V (ABC) - 3.2 net/4.1 buzz

Spring & Summer Fashion & Style Highlights

The latest wave of Spring & Summer Fashion & Style is out. The objective with this seasonal supplement is to get a solid read on the items the audience intends to purchase, whether they plan to spend more money on these items this year compared to last year and finally, which retailer or brand they find most appealing for each individual product category or item.

From a spending perspective, within the basic items category, 17% of respondents plan to spend more on jeans this year compared to last year, while 15% say they plan to spend more on graphic's t's. Within the seasonal category, and this should come as some welcome news, more than one in four respondents (27%) say they plan to spend more money on swimwear this year compared to last year, while 58% said they plan on spending about the same amount. 20% of female respondents said they plan on spending more money on skirts and summer dresses as well. So all in all, the planned spending picture looks pretty good, especially compared to last year.

The most appealing brand or retailer for the spring and summer season among male respondents was American Eagle Outfitters, while the young ladies gave Forever 21 the nod. The most appealing swimwear brands were Quiksilver among males and Roxy among females. Rainbow was the top mention in the sandals and flip flop category and Ray-Ban and Forever 21 were tops in the accessories category.

For additional background on the Spring & Summer wave of Fashion & Style and to read the full table of contents, visit the YT Research site.

Online Video Insights: Paying For Video Content

We recently wrapped up our latest Online Video Insights supplement exploring audience preference and interest as it relates to professional video content a la TV shows and movies. Online Video Insights is a supplementary component of the comprehensive Youth Trends Emerging Media & Entertainment portfolio. Findings for the latest wave (Q1 2010) were based on interviews completed the week of March 15th. The interviews were conducted with just over a thousand members of the Youth Trends Digital Media panel. All of the participating panelists had to stream at least one free or paid TV show or movie during the past month. That was the main qualifier for participation.

Here are some of the key findings:

By a pretty healthy margin, participants were most likely to stream an episode of one of their favorite TV shows they missed on-air. While on-demand viewing and other time-shifted options (DVR viewing) were indicated, it's online streaming that comes out as the most common behavior.

The participants tend to demonstrate a greater willingness to pay for online video content, both TV shows and movies via a monthly subscription fee as opposed to a pay-per-view option. More than one in four participants (27%) said they would at least consider paying $0.99 to stream an episode of one of their favorite TV shows, while about 30% said they would at least consider paying $9.99 a month for unlimited access to their favorite TV shows online.

Exactly a third of participants would at least consider paying $2.99 to stream a full-length movie, while 26% said they would at least consider paying $4.99. Clearly, price is a determining factor for many of the participants. Interestingly enough, more than a third of participants (36%) said they would be more likely to pay for online video content if the videos themselves, contained no advertisements or commercials.

The initial read left price and video type out as variables--about one in ten participants said they would definitely pay for video content online if it was no longer accessible for free. Another 16% said they would consider paying for it. Keep in mind, these are young people who have already demonstrated a propensity to stream content online, so if anything these guys represent more of a targeted potential customer base than that of the overall teen and young adult population. Clearly, interest levels adjust when you start throwing out pricing and different types of accessibility, but at this basic level, you're left with a not so small percentage who will at least consider paying for something that they're not typically accustomed to. YT client subscribers will be able to download the full report tomorrow.

Urbanspoon Moves Into Top Ten Downloaded Apps

For the thirty seven percent of teens and college students who own an iPhone or iPod Touch, here's an interesting new tidbit from our App tracking panel, the restaurant review and recommendation service Urbanspoon is now among the top most downloaded free apps. Based on last month's tracking data, more than one in four members (42%) have downloaded the app to date, proving that young people are beginning to use their connected Apple devices to do more than just download and play games. The Urbanspoon app has some pretty cool functionality. To look for recommendations, users shake their devices and in turn the app spits out some nearby locations. It's intuitive and some simple fun at the same time and enough to make Urbanspoon our app of the month.

Will The iPad Kill? Not So Much Initially, At Least Among Students

Last month, Apple unveiled its latest device to the world, the iPad. Apple is touting the "educational benefits" of the $499 device, but the real question is, will students respond with the same verve as they have with other Apple products in the past? Already a small Pennsylvania college, Seton Hill, announced that it will provide iPads to all of their full-time students next fall. With an enrollment of just over 2,000 students it's a start for the Apple machine, albeit it's not and Ohio State or Univ of Minnesota with 40,000 and 50,000 undergrads.

Clearly Apple has the education market in mind with the iPad as partnerships have also been trickling out with leading textbook publishers including Macmillan and McGraw Hill, among others. The basic concept is that students, as tech savvy as they are, will be more comfortable and adept in consuming their academic material via a multi-touch interactive e-reader device like the iPad as opposed to a more cumbersome (and heavy) 500 page textbook.

Besides the interactive e-reader capabilities, the iPad is really nothing more than oversized version of the already wildly popular iTouch. So, in other words, beyond the supposed convenience of an e-reader device, and a fairly pricey one at that, do students really desire having one more device that already offers many of the same features and functionality they're well accustomed to? The initial vote from our college student panelists is a resounding nay.

As much buzz as the broader e-reader market is receiving, when it comes to the actual end user level of students, awareness, let alone interest is quite weak. And, as can be expected, when you throw in a price tag of $499 (plus data plan costs) interest and intent among students drops even further.

Based on this initial feedback, the strategy to drive immediate adoption would be an institutional type sales approach where Apple would sell iPads in bulk to specific colleges and universities. We suspect the schools would then have to pass along the costs through various student access and tech fees. That said, other than the super tech schools like MIT and Stanford, it's pretty unlikely to see major state-funded institutions sign on quickly (fall 2010) as many are still very much struggling with budget and capital expenditure problems of their own. Chances are, the last thing they want to do is add on one more fee for their students.

Viewing Preferences: TV vs. Online

There is a notion out there that an increasing number of teens and college students are bypassing traditional TV viewing in favor of online viewing. No doubt, online viewing is gaining traction, but it's not necessarily at the expense of traditional viewing for most young people as evidenced by the findings from this month's Insights Immersion. Despite the perceived hype, only about one in ten panelists (11%) can be classified as "online exclusive" TV viewers. The vast majority of panelists, some 67% fall under the cross-platform viewing category, while the remaining 22% have yet to really embrace the Internet as a viewing platform. Interestingly enough, it's the cross-platform viewing segment that watches more TV (both linear and online), averaging about 13.5 hours each week. This certainly makes the cannibalization argument a bit difficult to totally buy into. We'd even go so far as to say that it's the cross-platform viewers that are among the most loyal and engaged fans of their favorite and most watched shows.

Viewing Preference:

- I prefer watching my favorite shows on TV: 72%

- I prefer watching my favorite shows online: 28%

"When I miss a new episode of one of my favorite TV shows, I am most likely to catch up by..."

- streaming the episode online: 56%

- watching a recording on my DVR: 19%

- watching the episode on-demand: 13%

- talking to a friend who watched it: 4%

- other mentions: 8%

Is foursquare The Next Big Thing?

A brief excerpt from the recently released March '10 Insights report, which focuses on the market implications for the fast growing location-based service foursquare: Undoubtedly, the ability to accurately predict the next big thing in digital, mobile and social media is much more of an art than a science. That said, from our perspective there is a fast growing perfect storm made up of user interest, appeal and stickiness leading us to believe the location-based service foursquare is extremely well positioned to become "the next big thing" for the youth and young adult market.

We first discussed the potential market implications for location-based services and mobile applications in the 2009 Youth Trends Macro Trends & Predictions report and have been refining and tweaking our point of view and outlook ever since.

The highly positive feedback, interest and intent expressed by panelists in this month's Insights Immersion represented the final confirmation of our belief that foursquare has the real opportunity to be the killer app of 2010 for the market. Simply put, foursquare has made location-based social networking cool by implementing game-like elements in the form of badges and points into the fabric of its offering. As Twitter encourages its users to tweet, foursquare users "check-in" with their current location. From there, their location is broadcast out to their list of friends who are also using the service.

Ultimately, it's a straightforward value proposition as the app functions mainly as a friend locater, which isn't such a bad thing on a sprawling campus during a hectic Friday or Saturday night. While the friend locater acts as the headline element of the service, it's the ancillary social and game-like features that really distinguish it from other location-based services like Loopt.

Download the March '10 Insights report to read the complete analysis.

Q1 2010 College Top Ten List Report Highlights

Another quarter is almost complete and that brings us a new wave of Top Ten. College is the first to come out this week followed by Kids and Teens next Monday. For some reason, may be it's just the simplicity of the report, Top Ten garners more press mentions than any other YT report, go figure, but I think the concept of ranking against a particular topic is something that most everyone can relate to pretty easily.

Moving onward here, the Q1 wave of College Top Ten was tweaked a bit as the celeb category was broken out by more general Hollywood celeb personalities and sports-specific personalities. We'll also continue to rotate between most socially responsible companies/brands and favorite sports-related activities. When all is said, we covered a total of 12 individual categories including favorite TV shows, magazine titles, musical artists, movie & DVD titles, male Hollywood celebs, female Hollywood celebs, sports celebs, video game titles, web destinations, clothing retailers/brands, footwear brands and sports-related activities. To read the full background and view the table of contents, click here. For non Youth Trends subscribers, Top Ten can be downloaded/purchased for $399.

Some topline highlights:

- TV: relatively unchanged at the top compared to Q4 '09, White Collar debuts among males and American Idol makes a surprise appearance among females

- Mag titles: six of the top ten titles among females are trending downwards on a sequential basis, sorta sums of the category's picture fairly well

- Musical artists: goo goo for Gaga and welcome to the list NeedToBreathe

- Movies & DVDs: V-Day performs as expected, no let up for The Hangover

- Hollywood/sports celebs: Jessica's back at the top, LeBron is still king and Elisha debuts for the first time

- Video game titles: COD Modern Warfare 2, 'nuff said

- Web sites: check out Sporcle, it's legit...

Youth Retail Winners: Aeropostale & The Buckle

As the major youth specialty retailers unveil their fourth quarter results one thing remains crystal clear: the value trend isn't ready to leave us just yet.

Comparatively, the notion that the teen and young adult market is fickle in nature is certainly accurate to a point, but as it relates to their general shopping habits as opposed to specific fashion styles and looks, the concept of a value-driven youth consumer, or perhaps more acutely, the value-driven approached demonstrated by their parents continues to benefit a select few, like Aeropostale, while other remain in a wild game of limbo.

Generally speaking, most youth retailers are experiencing improving sales trends, but there remains this sort of dark cloud hanging overhead that ultimately puts a damper on a more immediate return to profitable growth. It's almost as if they expect to encounter a few more bumps in the road before reaching a smoother track. That said, forecasts for many of the major chains remain rather conservative through the first quarter and quite possibly through the first half of the year.

Much like the back to school '09 shopping season, there are two winners that came out of the fourth quarter: Aeropostale and The Buckle. Let's start with The Buckle.

For those of you not familiar with the Youth Trends research product, The Buckle was the top retailer based on the 2009 Youth Trends Back To School Retail & Shopping Report. Take away the impressive financials they posted in the 4th quarter, the one thing The Buckle has going for it is the intangible measure of a superior coolness factor among its target audience. In fact, based on the latest Youth Trends Teen & College Lifestyle Report, The Buckle ranks among the top three coolest or trendiest retailers to shop at right now. That's more than commendable considering its retail footprint is quite a bit smaller than much larger and better known chains. The Buckle's fourth quarter profit increased 23% compared to a year ago as its net beat Wall St. analyst expectations by six cents.

The Buckle has a good thing going for it in that it offers an array of premium brands the audience and their parents are still very much willing to pay for. These brands include Affliction, Big Star and Rebel Spirit, among others. These brands also represent the macro "tough guy" youth fashion trend which continues to increase in popularity among the masses.

The more value oriented Aeropostale also continues to be one of the bright sports in the youth retail sector as they demonstrated once again with their latest financial results. Their fourth quarter net jumped 42% as sales hit more than $800 million. Same stores sales also increased 9%. Financially speaking, things will get more difficult for Aeropostale in the short term as prior year comparisons will come into play in the first and second quarters.

From the audience's perspective though, it seems as if the picture has never been brighter. Store traffic and several perception-based data points all hit record highs based on the Fall '09 Youth Trends Teen & College Lifestyle Report, and for the first time, more members of the audience said Aeropostale was cooler to shop at than Abercrombie & Fitch. The value of that perception should not be underestimated.

The other facet of Aeropostale's business that is flying a bit under the radar is their relatively new kid's concept store P.S. Aeropostale has plans to add up to 30 new P.S. stores this year. With a bit of a void in the children's and kid's sector for forward thinking fashionable designs, P.S. could be in a rather good position to experience to some immediate success, which in turn will bolster Aeropostale's broader results during the first half of this year. 

Fashion Trends: The Sophisticated Look Returns To Campus

As the spring semester moves along, we've picked up on an interesting fashion trend popping up on campuses around the country. Trendsetting fashionistas on campus are not only getting dressed up when they go out at night, but an increasing number of them are getting dressed up during the daytime hours as well. The "dress up" look, which is clearly a female-driven trend, is inclusive of embellished "hipster" denim, designer flats and/or ballet slippers, premium sweater sets, and perhaps most interesting to us, full make-up and hair. Of course, there are still many students who may dismiss the daytime "dress up" look as a waste of time during the precious morning hours, but it's clear to us based on panelist diaries and photos that dressing up and dressing well all of the time is of growing importance for an increasing number of younger women, especially those who are 21+.

So what's in the closet of a trendsetting fashionista on campus this semester? Here's a quick look at some of the "dress up" staples:

- Apparel: hipster-like skinny jeans are all the rage right now, the darker the denim and the lower the waist, the better

- Footwear: in most cases, the heels are still left for nighttime social activities, but that's not to say daytime footwear is any less sophisticated in appearance though. Stylish slippers and flats from Tory Bruch and Me Too are among the most coveted brands of the moment

- Accessories: it's practicality coupled with some glamor, that's essentially the modus operandi here. Students say finding the right tote is just as difficult if not more difficult than finding the right pair of skinny jeans, so that is certainly saying a lot. The bag has to be versatile enough to handle a laptop, textbooks as well as all the other necessities like the mobile phone, cosmetics and of course the Sigg. The popularity of Coach bags have been upstaged of late by totes from Tory Burch and Marc Jacobs.

- Beauty: just in case this wasn't clear earlier, the total full make up look is totally in right now with designer lip gloss from MAC and Stila among the favorite brands. Have to admit, a few giggles erupted as some young women on campus were sporting their own version of the Lady Gaga inspired "glam look." This certainly bodes well for all of the prestige brands moving forward...