GenDigital

Back To School '10 Highlights

We're pleased to announce the release of our annual Back To School Retail & Shopping report. You can review an exec summary and full table of contents over at the YT site. The report includes an thematical overview of key shopping trends and behaviors, a series of attitudinal measurements, fashion trends, and hard metrics as it relates to spending (by category) and shopping visits (by store type and retailer).

Here's an excerpt:

While the underlying theme of last year's back to school shopping season was one of frugality, this year we've identified a new shopping theme we're calling "here today, gone tomorrow." Simply put, students and their parents are out in the physical and digital marketplaces seeking out that great deal. And with respect to purchase behaviors, what a difference a year has made. The concepts of group shopping, deal a day offerings, digital and mobile coupons and invite-only channels, all of which could have easily been classified as being quite niche in nature have all in some level or another gone mainstream and gained significant traction. This theme is something we suspect is here to stay with us at least through the upcoming holiday shopping season.

World Cup 2010

Ok, let's be honest here, up until a few weeks ago, how many of you were familiar with a vuvuzela? Undoubtedly, even we were surprised to see how World Cup fever has gripped this country's youth audience especially in between proms, graduation parties and the start of summer break. The bulk of the audience's TV sports consumption is dominated by football, basketball and baseball, so to see an event like the World Cup rate so highly in this month's Insights Immersion is significant. At least part of the excitement can be linked directly to two factors: coverage and technology and clearly there are synergies between the two factors.

June is kind of a funny month for sports coverage as the NBA wraps up its season, while baseball approaches the mid-season mark. That said, it's fair to say there is a bit of a void so the timing of this year's World Cup is super strategic. The coverage on-air, online and even via mobile devices is reminiscent of an Olympic Games: thoroughly comprehensive and seemingly never ending. If you're a sports fan, it's almost as if you have to tune-in at some point. And that's exactly what the audience has been doing as noted by this month's findings.

World Cup Viewer and Fan Statistics:

- watched at least one game: 27% (37% of males/16% of females)

- watched more than one game: 20% (28% of males/12% of females)

- watched the U.S. team play: 26% (35% of males/16% of females)

- streamed a game online: 16% (24% of males/8% of females)

- streamed game highlights or interviews online: 23% (34% of males/11% of females)

- watched a game on a mobile device: 3% (6% of males/1% of females)

- watched game highlights or interviews on a mobile device: 5% (10% of males/1% of females)

- visited websites like ESPN Soccernet or Yahoo! Sports for World Cup info: 29% (41% of males/17% of females)

- Used Facebook or Twitter to follow World Cup-related activities: 16% (22% of males/10% of females)

It's Upfront Time For The Broadcast Nets

An improving economic outlook, larger media budgets, and a preview of more than 80 new TV shows. Welcome to the Broadcast Upfront for 2010. As the major broadcast networks unveil their fall schedules, media analysts anticipate healthy pricing gains for  the upcoming season.

As the 2010-11 TV season beckons, the Big Four--ABC, NBC, FOX and CBS have ordered a total of 84 pilots, more than half of which are comedies. Could this signal the end of the voracious appetite for unscripted reality fare? Only time will tell, but clearly momentum is back on the side of scripted programming, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

ABC - The number one broadcast network among teens and college students looks to make a splash starting with the police drama "Detroit 1-8-7." Michael Imperioli of Sopranos fame leads a cast of homicide detectives in rough and tumble Detroit. It definitely has a solid chance of resonating with a large segment of the viewing audience who are current fans of "CSI" and "Law & Order." Another new show of note is "My Generation," which clearly has the youth audience in mind as a key viewing target. The style is somewhat "Officesque" in nature as a documentary crew follows a group of graduating high school students as they receive their diplomas circa 2000. Ten years later, the documentary crew is back checking in to see what's up with the now group of twentysomethings and how life has been for them throughout a tumultuous decade of events, tragedies and milestones.

NBC - Sex and romance take the cake with the premiere of "Love Bites" which is slotted in the super strategic Thursday 10pm timeslot so you have to think the folks at NBC have high hopes for it. It wasn't too long ago that many of our female panelists posted about how disappointed they were with the cancellation of "Lipstick Jungle" so it looks as if "Love Bites" will help fill their void. And not to be undone, "Undercovers" features a married couple who join the CIA in order to keep the spark in their marriage going. Perhaps it is a bit reminiscent of Brad and Angelina in "Mr. & Mrs. Smith."

FOX - Get ready for "Running Wilde," a new romantic comedy starring Will Arnett from "Arrested Development" and former "Felicity" star Keri Russell. Arnett stars as an immature but extremely wealthy son of an oil tycoon who will do just about anything to win the affection from his childhood sweetheart played by Russell. Of course, we have to mention, "Terra Nova" which is being exec produced by none other than Stephen Spielberg. Fast forward to the year 2149 and things aren't going so well here on Earth.  There is overdevelopment, too many people and lots of pollution. Now, here is where things really get interesting. A team of scientists develop a mechanism that allows a few chosen people to go back in time, all the way back to prehistoric Earth as a dramatic and last ditch effort to save the world by correcting the mistakes of the past.

CBS - Things get going immediately with "$#*! My Dad Says" which marks a return to TV for William Shatner. We assume the four letter words starts with an "s" and end with a "t." Pretty risque move for the most conservative of the Big Four. The half hour comedy stars Shatner as a dad with a somewhat checkered past in the marriage department going through three divorces. He hopes to correct mistakes of the past (seems like the theme of choice for the new season) by taking in his youngest son with the goal of being the father he never was. Expect one-liners galore with this new comedy. And how about one more blast from the past, with the vibrant return of "Hawaii Five-O." It's the same beautiful setting in the land of Aloha with an even more beautiful cast of characters fighting the bad guys.

We'll have much more data to share and heck of a lot more visibility when we engage panelists next month in support of the Fall 2010 TV Show Preview & Outlook report. The report will be available in early August. From the Emmy Award-winning

Spring TV Season Expectations

The spring TV season is upon us and is shaping up to be one of interest and intrigue for the market.  From early March through the end of April a total of 15 new TV shows premiered along with the return of new episodes from more than 20 returning series ranging from staples like "South Park" to cult favorites like "Friday Night Lights." During this month's Insights Immersion, panelists rated their planned viewing for all new and returning series after viewing trailers and reading associated plot lines.

A new element we included this go around was a buzz factor, whereby panelists used a scale of 1 to 10 rated each new and returning series. The buzz included conversations panelists may have had regarding the show with their friends, commercials or other advertisements they recalled or something they read about the show prior to this month's Immersion.  And without further a due, the most anticipated TV show for the spring season is the harmonically appealing "Glee," followed by longtime action reality hit, "Dancing With the Stars." 

Here is the full run down of the top ten most anticipated TV shows for the spring season, inclusive of the net planned viewing rating as well as the buzz factor rating.

Spring TV Season Top Ten:

1. Glee (FOX) - 6.7 net/7.4 buzz

2. Dancing With The Stars (ABC) - 6.3 net/6.4 buzz

3. South Park (Comedy Central) - 6.0 net/5.5 buzz

4. Happy Town (ABC) - 5.4 net/6.5 buzz

5. 10 Things I Hate About You (ABC Family) - 4.8 net/5.1 buzz

6. Nurse Jackie (Showtime) - 4.4 net/5.0 buzz

7. The Hills (MTV) - 3.9 net/3.4 buzz

8. Top Chef Masters (Bravo) - 3.7 net/3.9 buzz

9. Justified (FX) - 3.4 net/4.1 buzz

10. V (ABC) - 3.2 net/4.1 buzz

Spring & Summer Fashion & Style Highlights

The latest wave of Spring & Summer Fashion & Style is out. The objective with this seasonal supplement is to get a solid read on the items the audience intends to purchase, whether they plan to spend more money on these items this year compared to last year and finally, which retailer or brand they find most appealing for each individual product category or item.

From a spending perspective, within the basic items category, 17% of respondents plan to spend more on jeans this year compared to last year, while 15% say they plan to spend more on graphic's t's. Within the seasonal category, and this should come as some welcome news, more than one in four respondents (27%) say they plan to spend more money on swimwear this year compared to last year, while 58% said they plan on spending about the same amount. 20% of female respondents said they plan on spending more money on skirts and summer dresses as well. So all in all, the planned spending picture looks pretty good, especially compared to last year.

The most appealing brand or retailer for the spring and summer season among male respondents was American Eagle Outfitters, while the young ladies gave Forever 21 the nod. The most appealing swimwear brands were Quiksilver among males and Roxy among females. Rainbow was the top mention in the sandals and flip flop category and Ray-Ban and Forever 21 were tops in the accessories category.

For additional background on the Spring & Summer wave of Fashion & Style and to read the full table of contents, visit the YT Research site.

Online Video Insights: Paying For Video Content

We recently wrapped up our latest Online Video Insights supplement exploring audience preference and interest as it relates to professional video content a la TV shows and movies. Online Video Insights is a supplementary component of the comprehensive Youth Trends Emerging Media & Entertainment portfolio. Findings for the latest wave (Q1 2010) were based on interviews completed the week of March 15th. The interviews were conducted with just over a thousand members of the Youth Trends Digital Media panel. All of the participating panelists had to stream at least one free or paid TV show or movie during the past month. That was the main qualifier for participation.

Here are some of the key findings:

By a pretty healthy margin, participants were most likely to stream an episode of one of their favorite TV shows they missed on-air. While on-demand viewing and other time-shifted options (DVR viewing) were indicated, it's online streaming that comes out as the most common behavior.

The participants tend to demonstrate a greater willingness to pay for online video content, both TV shows and movies via a monthly subscription fee as opposed to a pay-per-view option. More than one in four participants (27%) said they would at least consider paying $0.99 to stream an episode of one of their favorite TV shows, while about 30% said they would at least consider paying $9.99 a month for unlimited access to their favorite TV shows online.

Exactly a third of participants would at least consider paying $2.99 to stream a full-length movie, while 26% said they would at least consider paying $4.99. Clearly, price is a determining factor for many of the participants. Interestingly enough, more than a third of participants (36%) said they would be more likely to pay for online video content if the videos themselves, contained no advertisements or commercials.

The initial read left price and video type out as variables--about one in ten participants said they would definitely pay for video content online if it was no longer accessible for free. Another 16% said they would consider paying for it. Keep in mind, these are young people who have already demonstrated a propensity to stream content online, so if anything these guys represent more of a targeted potential customer base than that of the overall teen and young adult population. Clearly, interest levels adjust when you start throwing out pricing and different types of accessibility, but at this basic level, you're left with a not so small percentage who will at least consider paying for something that they're not typically accustomed to. YT client subscribers will be able to download the full report tomorrow.

Urbanspoon Moves Into Top Ten Downloaded Apps

For the thirty seven percent of teens and college students who own an iPhone or iPod Touch, here's an interesting new tidbit from our App tracking panel, the restaurant review and recommendation service Urbanspoon is now among the top most downloaded free apps. Based on last month's tracking data, more than one in four members (42%) have downloaded the app to date, proving that young people are beginning to use their connected Apple devices to do more than just download and play games. The Urbanspoon app has some pretty cool functionality. To look for recommendations, users shake their devices and in turn the app spits out some nearby locations. It's intuitive and some simple fun at the same time and enough to make Urbanspoon our app of the month.

Will The iPad Kill? Not So Much Initially, At Least Among Students

Last month, Apple unveiled its latest device to the world, the iPad. Apple is touting the "educational benefits" of the $499 device, but the real question is, will students respond with the same verve as they have with other Apple products in the past? Already a small Pennsylvania college, Seton Hill, announced that it will provide iPads to all of their full-time students next fall. With an enrollment of just over 2,000 students it's a start for the Apple machine, albeit it's not and Ohio State or Univ of Minnesota with 40,000 and 50,000 undergrads.

Clearly Apple has the education market in mind with the iPad as partnerships have also been trickling out with leading textbook publishers including Macmillan and McGraw Hill, among others. The basic concept is that students, as tech savvy as they are, will be more comfortable and adept in consuming their academic material via a multi-touch interactive e-reader device like the iPad as opposed to a more cumbersome (and heavy) 500 page textbook.

Besides the interactive e-reader capabilities, the iPad is really nothing more than oversized version of the already wildly popular iTouch. So, in other words, beyond the supposed convenience of an e-reader device, and a fairly pricey one at that, do students really desire having one more device that already offers many of the same features and functionality they're well accustomed to? The initial vote from our college student panelists is a resounding nay.

As much buzz as the broader e-reader market is receiving, when it comes to the actual end user level of students, awareness, let alone interest is quite weak. And, as can be expected, when you throw in a price tag of $499 (plus data plan costs) interest and intent among students drops even further.

Based on this initial feedback, the strategy to drive immediate adoption would be an institutional type sales approach where Apple would sell iPads in bulk to specific colleges and universities. We suspect the schools would then have to pass along the costs through various student access and tech fees. That said, other than the super tech schools like MIT and Stanford, it's pretty unlikely to see major state-funded institutions sign on quickly (fall 2010) as many are still very much struggling with budget and capital expenditure problems of their own. Chances are, the last thing they want to do is add on one more fee for their students.

Viewing Preferences: TV vs. Online

There is a notion out there that an increasing number of teens and college students are bypassing traditional TV viewing in favor of online viewing. No doubt, online viewing is gaining traction, but it's not necessarily at the expense of traditional viewing for most young people as evidenced by the findings from this month's Insights Immersion. Despite the perceived hype, only about one in ten panelists (11%) can be classified as "online exclusive" TV viewers. The vast majority of panelists, some 67% fall under the cross-platform viewing category, while the remaining 22% have yet to really embrace the Internet as a viewing platform. Interestingly enough, it's the cross-platform viewing segment that watches more TV (both linear and online), averaging about 13.5 hours each week. This certainly makes the cannibalization argument a bit difficult to totally buy into. We'd even go so far as to say that it's the cross-platform viewers that are among the most loyal and engaged fans of their favorite and most watched shows.

Viewing Preference:

- I prefer watching my favorite shows on TV: 72%

- I prefer watching my favorite shows online: 28%

"When I miss a new episode of one of my favorite TV shows, I am most likely to catch up by..."

- streaming the episode online: 56%

- watching a recording on my DVR: 19%

- watching the episode on-demand: 13%

- talking to a friend who watched it: 4%

- other mentions: 8%

Is foursquare The Next Big Thing?

A brief excerpt from the recently released March '10 Insights report, which focuses on the market implications for the fast growing location-based service foursquare: Undoubtedly, the ability to accurately predict the next big thing in digital, mobile and social media is much more of an art than a science. That said, from our perspective there is a fast growing perfect storm made up of user interest, appeal and stickiness leading us to believe the location-based service foursquare is extremely well positioned to become "the next big thing" for the youth and young adult market.

We first discussed the potential market implications for location-based services and mobile applications in the 2009 Youth Trends Macro Trends & Predictions report and have been refining and tweaking our point of view and outlook ever since.

The highly positive feedback, interest and intent expressed by panelists in this month's Insights Immersion represented the final confirmation of our belief that foursquare has the real opportunity to be the killer app of 2010 for the market. Simply put, foursquare has made location-based social networking cool by implementing game-like elements in the form of badges and points into the fabric of its offering. As Twitter encourages its users to tweet, foursquare users "check-in" with their current location. From there, their location is broadcast out to their list of friends who are also using the service.

Ultimately, it's a straightforward value proposition as the app functions mainly as a friend locater, which isn't such a bad thing on a sprawling campus during a hectic Friday or Saturday night. While the friend locater acts as the headline element of the service, it's the ancillary social and game-like features that really distinguish it from other location-based services like Loopt.

Download the March '10 Insights report to read the complete analysis.