GenDigital

2012 Youth Macro Trends, Predictions & Insights

With 2012 on the horizon, we're pleased to present our annual Youth Macro Trends, Predictions & Insights report for the coming year as well as revisit a handful of trends and predictions from last year's report to see how they have played out over the course of this year. Rather than providing an exhaustive list of rather meaningless trends, our main objective is to provide a select number of actionable views that have multiple implications across various industries and product categories. If we did our job correctly, there should be something in here for everyone, and we hope that something results in a conversation starter, a strategy meeting, or if nothing else, a definitive edge on the why behind the what for all things youth-culture related.

2012 Youth Macro Trends, Predictions & Insights

The Gamification of Youth Marketing & Media

Check In & Buy

The Future of m-Commerce

Tablets Everywhere

Moving Towards The Cloud

Twitter As An Exclusive Social Alternative

Digital Entrepreneurialism

Mining Social Influence

Visual Gratification

2011 Recap: Convergence Everywhere

2011 Recap: Fashion Gets Personal & Athletic

2011 Recap: Purpose-Driven Cause Marketing

2011 Recap: Social Shopping: Click, Shop, Talk & Buy

Holiday Shopping Preview

As the mega important holiday shopping season begins in earnest, we're noting a rather subtle yet consistent sense of confidence among college students. Hopefully, this sense of confidence and optimism isn't short lived. Black Friday, which at this point, might as well be considered a one-day holiday, was another huge draw for students this year. Nearly seven in ten panelists (68%) surveyed in this month's Insights Immersion reported hitting the malls and stores on Black Friday compared to about 64% last year. This equates to approximately 5.5 million college students nationally. These days of course, we can't leave out Cyber Monday. About one in five panelists (18%) said they shopped online this past Monday, compared to 15% of panelists last year.

 

It's interesting to note that about a third of panelists who shopped on Black Friday did so without having a particular item in mind they intended to purchase. In some respects, they just wanted to witness all of the excitement. Now, getting back to that whole confidence thing: slightly more than half of all panelists, some 52% said they felt like this holiday season was going to be a good one, in terms of both gifts they expected to receive and the gifts they plan on purchasing for others. Last year, the confidence percentage among participating panelists was 44%, so at least we're moving in a positive direction.

 

When it comes to planned spending though, we're actually expecting a decrease compared to last year, which we found to be a bit counterintuitive at first glance, but after further analysis, the cause of the difference became quite clear.

 

A holiday-related shopping trend of note this year among students is the concept of group gift giving. Given the fact that the majority of students live with at least two other roommates, the art of gift giving around the holiday season presents a challenge. Ultimately, there is a desire to purchase something for all close friends and significant others, yet in most cases, their respective checking accounts won't cover the expected costs. Enter group gifting. Instead of purchasing a rather nominal $15 to $20 gift for upwards of 5 close friends, a student instead will contribute between $5 and $10 with a group of five or more students to purchase a single gift for a member of the clique. Think of it as a modified game of Secret Santa where everyone pitches in for one other. This activity is one of the main reasons why total expected spending will be slightly down this year.

 

When all is said and done, average holiday-related spending among panelists, which is inclusive of gifts for parents, siblings, significant others, friends and gifts for themselves is $531, which is representative of a 7% decrease compared to last year.

It's Halloween Time On Campus...And It's Big!

Thought Halloween was just a holiday for younger children and tweens? Think again. In relatively short order, Halloween has fast become one of the events of the year for the college crowd complete with costume parties and socials, contests, and even fundraising drives. Ultimately, it’s a well-timed mid-semester break for students to step out of their respective shells and test the boundaries of acceptable attire.  Without question, there will be plenty of costumes worn by students this weekend that will most definitely cross the line from being perceived as humorous to at least somewhat offensive by some.

Perhaps the most impactful part of Halloween among college students is the actual duration of associated activities. Although technically Halloween is just a one-day holiday for the masses, an increasing number of college students are turning the holiday into a multi-day affair. From our perspective, it’s akin to the Spring Break period whereby students have what they perceive to be a solid excuse to have a really good time for a prolonged period.

There are several different ways marketers can tap into and leverage the Halloween spirit among college students, be it a sponsored costume party or a cause-related effort. If nothing else, it’s certainly an interesting time of year to engage the audience.

When all is said and done, nearly eight in ten panelists said they plan on dressing up for Halloween this year, compared to about three in four last year. The most popular costume ideas mentioned by students this year include: pop stars Katy Perry and Nicki Minaj, the new royal power couple of Prince William and Kate, a ballet star inspired by the movie “Black Swan,” a character from the super popular Angry Birds game franchise and any character from the reality TV series hit “Jersey Shore.”

Overall, students say they will spend an average of $71 on costumes, make-up, decorations and candy for Halloween this year. Beyond dressing up, a record number of college students plan to participate in variety of Halloween-related activities throughout the weekend:

- 83% plan to attend at least one Halloween theme party

- 78% plan to be in costume for at least one Halloween-related event or party

- 55% plan to attend a Halloween theme party hosted by a local club or bar

- 45% plan to participate in a Halloween costume contest

- 44% plan to attend multiple Halloween theme parties 

- 39% say Halloween is their favorite holiday of the year

- 36% plan to attend a Halloween theme party hosted by a fraternity or sorority

Popular Looks & Styles For Back To School 2011

So what will be the popular looks and styles on campuses later this summer and into the fall season? For the ladies, it willbe a somewhat casual look topped off with a lot of accessories. The super college preppie look will be in vogue for the guys. Here is look at some of the more popular fashion trends among students as well as the stores they plan on shopping at the most for back to school:

Female Fashion Trends:

- Clothing: super skinny jeans, bleached jeans, "boyfriend" jeans, cropped jeans, neon colored pants and leggings, yoga pants, tribal printed camis and tanks, floral printed camis and tanks, chiffon skirts and dresses and leather jackets 

Top mentioned clothing brands and retailers: Forever 21, Nordstrom, H&M, American Eagle Outfitters, 7 For All Mankind, Urban Outfitters, Marc Jacobs and Victoria's Secret

 

- Accessories: layered necklaces, large/chunky rings, vintage hair pieces and clips, printed scarves, beanie caps and floral totes and bags

 

Top mentioned accessory brands and retailers: Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, Forever 21, Vera Bradley, Coach and Marc Jacobs

 

- Footwear: customized flip flops, moccasins, animal printed flats and ballet slippers and full-length leather boots

 

Top mentioned footwear brands and retailers: Havaianas, Forever 21, TOMS, Steve Madden, Lucky Brand, Rainbow and Minnetonka  

Back To School 2011 Highlights

If we had to use just one word to describe the climate surrounding this year's back to school shopping season, we would use the word restraint. This is not to say that all of the air is out of the balloon, but it wouldn't hurt if it was propped up a bit. It's restraint, mainly in the form of moderation that's the big story for back to school this year. This year, students and their parents plan to spend an average of $608 on back to school-related purchases, representative of a 10% decrease compared to last year. Incoming freshmen lead the way in terms of planned spending, which can be expected to a certain extent, while an increasing number of returning students intend to make do with several items they already own.

 

For the most part, the decrease in planned spending is a direct result of the high level of uncertainty related to the broader economy.  In fact, more than seven in ten respondents who participated in this year's back to school shopping insights immersion said the economy will impact their shopping and spending plans. Consequently, an increasing number of students will be out in the marketplace looking to buy more for less. The onus will fall back to the key youth-facing retailers to be extremely creative with their promotions in order to seize the attention of students whether they're shopping in a mall or in front of a computer.

 

Several leading retailers have moved up the start of their back to school sales and promotional programs in lieu of all this shopper uncertainty. We even saw a few of these programs up and running in early June. From the perspective of the retailers, the concept of front-running is a prudent move that offers up at least the opportunity to secure dollars earmarked for back to school early, with the idea that those funds just may not be readily available come late August or through the month of September.

 

With that said, this year we've seen an increase in the number of students who said they already started purchasing items specifically for their return to campus later this summer. At the same time, more students are telling us they're out in the marketplace looking for a good deal, especially those that are tailored specifically for the college set. Promotions and rewards offers tied to the presentation of a valid student ID is something an increasing number of students have become attuned to. Fewer students are willing to experiment and branch out with purchasing new brands this season. On the other hand, more students say they plan to stick with their original back to school shopping list and refrain from making any additional impulse type purchases.

2011 Youth Macro Trends & Predictions

Out with the old and in the new. With 2011 now in the horizon, we're pleased to present our annual Youth Macro Trends & Predictions report for the coming year as well as revisit a handful of trends and topics from last year's report to see how they've played out over the course of this year. Instead of providing an esoteric and rather exhaustive list of trends, the main objective with Youth Macro Trends & Predictions is to provide actionable views that have multiple implications across various industries and product categories. Ultimately, there should be something in this report for everyone. That something will hopefully result in a conversation starter, a strategy re-visit and an indelible edge on the why behind the what when it comes to all things youth-culture related. You can view the table of contents here

Back To School '10 Highlights

We're pleased to announce the release of our annual Back To School Retail & Shopping report. You can review an exec summary and full table of contents over at the YT site. The report includes an thematical overview of key shopping trends and behaviors, a series of attitudinal measurements, fashion trends, and hard metrics as it relates to spending (by category) and shopping visits (by store type and retailer).

Here's an excerpt:

While the underlying theme of last year's back to school shopping season was one of frugality, this year we've identified a new shopping theme we're calling "here today, gone tomorrow." Simply put, students and their parents are out in the physical and digital marketplaces seeking out that great deal. And with respect to purchase behaviors, what a difference a year has made. The concepts of group shopping, deal a day offerings, digital and mobile coupons and invite-only channels, all of which could have easily been classified as being quite niche in nature have all in some level or another gone mainstream and gained significant traction. This theme is something we suspect is here to stay with us at least through the upcoming holiday shopping season.

Will The iPad Kill? Not So Much Initially, At Least Among Students

Last month, Apple unveiled its latest device to the world, the iPad. Apple is touting the "educational benefits" of the $499 device, but the real question is, will students respond with the same verve as they have with other Apple products in the past? Already a small Pennsylvania college, Seton Hill, announced that it will provide iPads to all of their full-time students next fall. With an enrollment of just over 2,000 students it's a start for the Apple machine, albeit it's not and Ohio State or Univ of Minnesota with 40,000 and 50,000 undergrads.

Clearly Apple has the education market in mind with the iPad as partnerships have also been trickling out with leading textbook publishers including Macmillan and McGraw Hill, among others. The basic concept is that students, as tech savvy as they are, will be more comfortable and adept in consuming their academic material via a multi-touch interactive e-reader device like the iPad as opposed to a more cumbersome (and heavy) 500 page textbook.

Besides the interactive e-reader capabilities, the iPad is really nothing more than oversized version of the already wildly popular iTouch. So, in other words, beyond the supposed convenience of an e-reader device, and a fairly pricey one at that, do students really desire having one more device that already offers many of the same features and functionality they're well accustomed to? The initial vote from our college student panelists is a resounding nay.

As much buzz as the broader e-reader market is receiving, when it comes to the actual end user level of students, awareness, let alone interest is quite weak. And, as can be expected, when you throw in a price tag of $499 (plus data plan costs) interest and intent among students drops even further.

Based on this initial feedback, the strategy to drive immediate adoption would be an institutional type sales approach where Apple would sell iPads in bulk to specific colleges and universities. We suspect the schools would then have to pass along the costs through various student access and tech fees. That said, other than the super tech schools like MIT and Stanford, it's pretty unlikely to see major state-funded institutions sign on quickly (fall 2010) as many are still very much struggling with budget and capital expenditure problems of their own. Chances are, the last thing they want to do is add on one more fee for their students.

Youth Retail Winners: Aeropostale & The Buckle

As the major youth specialty retailers unveil their fourth quarter results one thing remains crystal clear: the value trend isn't ready to leave us just yet.

Comparatively, the notion that the teen and young adult market is fickle in nature is certainly accurate to a point, but as it relates to their general shopping habits as opposed to specific fashion styles and looks, the concept of a value-driven youth consumer, or perhaps more acutely, the value-driven approached demonstrated by their parents continues to benefit a select few, like Aeropostale, while other remain in a wild game of limbo.

Generally speaking, most youth retailers are experiencing improving sales trends, but there remains this sort of dark cloud hanging overhead that ultimately puts a damper on a more immediate return to profitable growth. It's almost as if they expect to encounter a few more bumps in the road before reaching a smoother track. That said, forecasts for many of the major chains remain rather conservative through the first quarter and quite possibly through the first half of the year.

Much like the back to school '09 shopping season, there are two winners that came out of the fourth quarter: Aeropostale and The Buckle. Let's start with The Buckle.

For those of you not familiar with the Youth Trends research product, The Buckle was the top retailer based on the 2009 Youth Trends Back To School Retail & Shopping Report. Take away the impressive financials they posted in the 4th quarter, the one thing The Buckle has going for it is the intangible measure of a superior coolness factor among its target audience. In fact, based on the latest Youth Trends Teen & College Lifestyle Report, The Buckle ranks among the top three coolest or trendiest retailers to shop at right now. That's more than commendable considering its retail footprint is quite a bit smaller than much larger and better known chains. The Buckle's fourth quarter profit increased 23% compared to a year ago as its net beat Wall St. analyst expectations by six cents.

The Buckle has a good thing going for it in that it offers an array of premium brands the audience and their parents are still very much willing to pay for. These brands include Affliction, Big Star and Rebel Spirit, among others. These brands also represent the macro "tough guy" youth fashion trend which continues to increase in popularity among the masses.

The more value oriented Aeropostale also continues to be one of the bright sports in the youth retail sector as they demonstrated once again with their latest financial results. Their fourth quarter net jumped 42% as sales hit more than $800 million. Same stores sales also increased 9%. Financially speaking, things will get more difficult for Aeropostale in the short term as prior year comparisons will come into play in the first and second quarters.

From the audience's perspective though, it seems as if the picture has never been brighter. Store traffic and several perception-based data points all hit record highs based on the Fall '09 Youth Trends Teen & College Lifestyle Report, and for the first time, more members of the audience said Aeropostale was cooler to shop at than Abercrombie & Fitch. The value of that perception should not be underestimated.

The other facet of Aeropostale's business that is flying a bit under the radar is their relatively new kid's concept store P.S. Aeropostale has plans to add up to 30 new P.S. stores this year. With a bit of a void in the children's and kid's sector for forward thinking fashionable designs, P.S. could be in a rather good position to experience to some immediate success, which in turn will bolster Aeropostale's broader results during the first half of this year. 

Fall '09 College Shopper Insights

Not to be outdone by College Internet Life, the latest wave of College Shopper Insights is also available. Even though digital media and mobile continue to be the most discussed areas of interest, Shopper Insights certainly helps put a lot of context behind the decision making process and parallel behaviors the audience demonstrate across multiple categories.

Honestly, can you think of anything that's more competitive and cut-throat than the retail sector? Shopper Insights enables retailers and brands to essentially take a step back from the day-to-day and review a thoughtful depiction of what the audience is actually purchasing (and what they aren't), why they're purchasing particular brands, their brand loyalty, and the key influences that take hold in the purchase decision making process. If anything, we're observing a more educated and value-oriented college consumer who may still very well yearn for those pricey items, but demonstrate a measurable level of patience that was not readily present back in 2006 or '07. Which retailers are the most appealing and which are the most aspirational--it's all in the new wave of Shopper Insights. You can review the full table of contents of the new wave here.